Robinhood’s Q4: Revenue Misses Estimates, Earnings Per Share Surprises

Robinhood just delivered a classic Wall Street split decision—revenue stumbles, but earnings sprint ahead. Here’s how the retail trading platform turned a top-line disappointment into a bottom-line win.

The Revenue Reality Check

Analysts had their numbers dialed in, but Robinhood’s Q4 revenue didn’t hit the mark. It’s a reminder that even the most disruptive platforms aren’t immune to quarterly target practice. The market’s reaction? A collective shrug—because the real story was hiding in the earnings column.

Earnings: The Unexpected Hero

While revenue missed, earnings per share (EPS) punched through expectations. That’s the kind of pivot that gets CFOs a bonus—cutting costs or juicing margins when the top line softens. It shows a operational discipline that’s sometimes lacking in fintech’s ‘growth-at-all-costs’ playbook.

The Crypto Angle

No breakdown was given, but let’s be real—crypto trading volume is the wildcard in Robinhood’s deck. A quiet quarter in Bitcoin and altcoins could easily explain a revenue shortfall. Conversely, disciplined cost management in their crypto operations might have fueled that EPS beat. In this sector, digital assets are never just a side show.

The Bottom Line

Robinhood’s quarter is a masterclass in managing expectations: lower the bar on one metric so you can vault over the other. It’s a familiar dance in finance—sometimes, missing the right target is more profitable than hitting the wrong one. For the crypto-native crowd, it underscores that traditional metrics still rule the day, even for the platforms bridging to our digital future. A solid EPS beat builds runway, and in this market, runway is everything.

Analysts lower targets but keep buy ratings

Goldman Sachs’ James lowered his 12-month price target for Robinhood from $152 to $130, still expecting a 52% gain. He also cut 2026 and 2027 earnings forecasts by 7% and 3%, while adding new projections for 2028. He said they dropped their P/E target from 54x to 45.5x, since the market is valuing stocks lower in general. Still, he’s standing behind Robinhood.

Deutsche Bank’s Brian also dropped his price target, from $155 to $130, but didn’t change his view. He called the fourth quarter “mixed.” Their adjusted earnings came in at 57 cents, which was lower than his own estimate of 61 cents, and below the 63-cent consensus. Robinhood got a 9-cent bump from taxes coming in lower than expected. Their adjusted EBITDA was $761 million, falling short of Deutsche’s $815 million and the $833 million average.

Barclays, despite pointing out weak securities lending and take rates, stayed optimistic. They cut their target from $159 to $124, but still expect a 45% upside.

They admitted some growth numbers were slowing down, but said Robinhood’s long-term goals could still keep the stock in play.

Morgan Stanley’s team, on the other hand, didn’t join the crowd. They left their equal-weight rating untouched, with a price target of $147, a 72% jump from Robinhood’s Tuesday price.

They noted that product development is strong heading into 2026, naming tools like Social, Cortex, the UK ISA rollout, prediction markets, and the Rothera JV. But they warned that NNAs and crypto could cause problems in the short term.

Crypto recovery and prediction markets draw new optimism

Bernstein’s Gautam had one of the most aggressive targets at $160, which WOULD mean an 87% surge. He pointed out Robinhood’s prediction markets business just hit $435 million in annual revenue and said it’s on track to become a $1 billion business.

Gautam called the crypto weakness “expected” and brushed off the crash. He wrote, “We would ride out the crypto volatility and see no point in turning negative on the stock closer to the bottom.”

JPMorgan didn’t see it that way. Their team dropped its target from $130 to $113 and stuck with a neutral rating. They saw too many weak spots. Net deposits came in at $15.9 billion, which was below both their estimate of $18.5 billion and the $19.4 billion consensus. They also flagged slowing growth in Gold subscribers, account growth, and overall deposits. They wrote, “We thought the results were weaker than anticipated.”

Still, Robinhood posted a full-year EPS of $2.12, slightly ahead of expectations. And despite the revenue miss, key user metrics hit new highs. Gold users, funded accounts, and Gold card holders all reached record levels. That’s why most analysts aren’t panicking.

In their eyes, Robinhood has enough going for it to push through the short-term mess. Most of them are still betting big on what happens next.

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