Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Will Shatter Records in 2026 as Dollar Liquidity Surges

Arthur Hayes, the crypto maverick and former BitMEX CEO, just dropped a bullish bombshell for Bitcoin's trajectory.

The Liquidity Engine Is Primed

Hayes points to a single, powerful macro driver: expanding U.S. dollar liquidity. When the financial system's taps are open, capital doesn't just sit still—it hunts for yield. And right now, the most compelling quarry is digital scarcity. Forget complex models; this is old-school finance meets new-world asset—a simple story of money searching for a home that Wall Street can't easily inflate away.

Why 2026 Is the Magic Number

The prediction isn't for next week or even next year. Hayes sets the target for 2026, framing it as a cycle play. It suggests a confluence of factors—potential policy shifts, halving aftermath, and institutional maturation—aligning to create the perfect storm. It's a patient bull's game, betting on systemic momentum rather than a fleeting pump. After all, in crypto, the big moves often come when mainstream finance is busy rearranging deck chairs on its own sinking ships.

The Bottom Line: A Provocative Bet on the System's Flaws

Hayes's call is more than a price target; it's a stark commentary. It argues that Bitcoin's next all-time high won't be driven by crypto-native hype alone, but by the continued dilution of traditional currency. It's a wager that the very mechanism meant to stabilize economies—liquidity expansion—will instead fuel the ascent of their greatest challenger. One might call it cynical, but in finance, they call it a hedge.

Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Needs Dollar Liquidity to Catch Gold and Nasdaq

In a post published Wednesday, Hayes questioned why bitcoin struggled in 2025 while assets like gold and the Nasdaq continued to rise.

His answer was straightforward: liquidity. Without an expanding supply of dollars, Bitcoin lacks the fuel needed to outperform.

“Dollar liquidity must expand for that to happen,” Hayes said, adding that he expects those conditions to materialize in 2026.

Hayes outlined several factors that could trigger a sharp increase in liquidity. Among them is the potential expansion of the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which WOULD inject additional money into the financial system.

He also pointed to falling mortgage rates as liquidity loosens, along with a shift in commercial bank behavior that could see more lending directed toward U.S. government-backed strategic industries.

Military spending also plays a role in Hayes’ thesis. He argued that the United States will continue to project power globally, a strategy that requires large-scale weapons production financed through the banking system.

That spending, he said, contributes indirectly to monetary expansion, reinforcing conditions that tend to benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin.

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Historically, looser monetary conditions have favored Bitcoin, as investors seek alternatives to fiat currencies that may lose purchasing power over time.

Hayes acknowledged that dollar liquidity contracted in 2025, coinciding with Bitcoin’s decline. Over the year, Bitcoin fell more than 14%, while gold surged over 44%.

Technology stocks, however, told a different story. The sector was the top performer in the S&P 500 last year, delivering returns well above the broader index.

Hayes attributed that divergence to government intervention, arguing that artificial intelligence has effectively been nationalized by both the United States and China.

As a result, capital continued flowing into AI-related companies regardless of traditional market signals.

Hayes: Bitcoin Is Monetary Technology, $100K Needs Fiat Debasement

Despite Bitcoin’s underperformance, Hayes cautioned against drawing bearish conclusions. He described Bitcoin as “monetary technology,” whose value is inseparable from the scale of fiat debasement.

While that alone ensures Bitcoin is worth more than zero, Hayes said reaching prices NEAR $100,000 requires sustained monetary expansion.

Optimism among long-term bulls also remains strong. Venture capitalist Tim Draper reiterated this week that 2026 would be a breakout year, repeating his long-standing $250,000 bitcoin price target.

Meanwhile, Abra CEO Bill Barhydt believes Bitcoin could benefit in 2026 as easing monetary policy injects fresh liquidity into global markets, reviving risk appetite after a prolonged period of tight financial conditions.