Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders May Be Running Out of Patience—And That’s Bullish
Supply shock incoming? The data suggests the old guard is finally done selling.
The Capitulation Clock
Long-term holders—the crypto equivalent of granite—have been offloading coins for months. Every market cycle has its distribution phase, where early believers take profits and weak hands get shaken out. Analysts track these movements like seismographs, watching for the tremor that signals the selling pressure is about to drop off a cliff. The latest readings hint we're there. When the most steadfast participants stop feeding coins into the market, the available supply dries up fast. It's simple arithmetic, something Wall Street often forgets between martini lunches.
The Mechanics of a Squeeze
Think of Bitcoin's circulating supply as a reservoir. The long-term holder cohort acts like a deep, locked vault. When they open the spigot, price discovery suffers under the weight of new sell orders. But when that vault slams shut? The remaining liquid supply gets fought over by a growing pool of buyers. This isn't speculation—it's on-chain data showing wallets moving coins after years of dormancy are becoming a statistical rarity. The exhaustion of this seller group doesn't just remove pressure; it actively primes the pump for the next leg up.
History Doesn't Repeat, But It Rhymes
Past cycles show a clear pattern: prolonged long-term holder distribution precedes explosive rallies. It's the market's way of resetting, transferring assets from those who believe in the story to those who believe in the trade—before the narrative catches fire again. The current data paints a familiar picture, one where patient capital has finished repositioning. What's left is a market stripped of one of its last major overhangs, waiting for a catalyst. The stage is set not for a gentle recovery, but for a move that could leave traditional finance scrambling to explain how an 'unproductive asset' keeps outperforming their entire portfolio.
1.6M BTC From Long-Term Holders Has Re-Entered Circulation Since 2024
In a recent note, K33 head of research Vetle Lunde said Bitcoin supply held in unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) older than two years has been declining consistently since 2024.
Over that period, roughly 1.6 million BTC, worth about $138 billion at current prices, has re-entered circulation, signaling sustained onchain selling from early investors.
Lunde said the scale of this decline suggests intentional distribution rather than routine technical activity.
While some reactivations can be explained by factors such as Grayscale’s bitcoin Trust converting into an ETF, wallet consolidation, or security upgrades, he argued those factors alone cannot account for the magnitude of supply that has moved.
“The numbers point to meaningful selling,” Lunde wrote, rather than passive reshuffling of coins.
According to K33, 2024 and 2025 rank as the second- and third-largest years on record for long-term supply reactivation, exceeded only by 2017.
Activity stays low in the crypto market, with low volumes and modest open interest following another week of chop.
Will rebalancing effects improve the momentum as we grind towards the end of 2025?https://t.co/yHb10zXtbP
Unlike that earlier cycle, which was driven by ICO participation and altcoin speculation, the current wave appears to be fueled by direct selling into deeper institutional liquidity.
Lunde pointed to the growth of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased corporate treasury demand as key enablers of this shift.
The report cited several large transactions as evidence, including an 80,000 BTC over-the-counter sale facilitated by Galaxy in July, a whale swapping 24,000 BTC for ether in August, and another selling roughly 11,000 BTC between October and November.
K33 said similar activity has been widespread among large holders and is likely a major factor behind Bitcoin’s relative underperformance in 2025.
In total, K33 estimates that about $300 billion worth of Bitcoin aged one year or more has been revived this year alone.
Lunde said the availability of institutional liquidity has allowed long-term holders to exit positions at six-digit prices, reducing ownership concentration and establishing new cost bases across the market.
K33 Expects Bitcoin Sell-Side Pressure to Ease as Long-Term Supply Stabilizes
Looking ahead, K33 expects sell-side pressure to ease. “With 20% of BTC’s supply reactivated over the past two years, we expect onchain sell-side pressure to approach saturation,” Lunde said.
He expects the two-year supply metric to stabilize and end 2026 above its current level of around 12.16 million BTC.
The firm also flagged potential portfolio rebalancing effects as the quarter turns. Bitcoin has historically tended to MOVE opposite the prior quarter early in a new one, Lunde noted.
After underperforming other asset classes in Q4, Bitcoin could see renewed inflows in late December and early January as managers rebalance fixed allocations.
As reported, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Grayscale Research both project BTC will exceed its previous peak despite conventional wisdom suggesting 2026 should be a pullback year.
