Bitcoin’s $104K Breakout: Stealthy Pause Before a Parabolic Year-End Rally?

Bitcoin just punched through $104,000 like it was a paper ceiling—now traders hold their breath. Is this the fakeout before the mother of all bull runs?

Subheader: The Whisper Numbers Behind the Calm

No one’s fooled by the sideways action. Liquidity’s pooling like Wall Street bonuses before the real fireworks start. The $104K breakout wasn’t a fluke—it was a warning shot.

Subheader: Year-End Rally or Year-End Reality Check?

Every institutional ‘crypto strategist’ suddenly has a six-figure price target (funny how that works after the breakout). Meanwhile, retail FOMO lurks like a sleep-deprived day trader with leverage.

Closing thought: If history rhymes, Bitcoin’s about to write a verse that makes 2021 look like a haiku. Just don’t tell the SEC.

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Share Falls as Corporate Adoption Expands

MicroStrategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, but its share is declining as more companies add BTC to their balance sheets. Data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET shows MicroStrategy now holds 640,808 BTC, or 60% of total corporate bitcoin reserves — down from 75% earlier this year.

Corporate Bitcoin accumulation slowed in October, with public and private firms adding just 14,447 BTC — the lowest monthly increase of 2025. Coinbase purchased 2,772 BTC, while Japan’s Metaplanet led with 5,268 BTC, underscoring steady institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.

UPDATE: Saylor’s Strategy still leads corporate $BTC holdings with 640,808 $BTC, but its share slipped to 60% as more firms add Bitcoin to treasuries. pic.twitter.com/DeOHXNe0ed

Fidelity Digital Assets noted that corporate treasuries continue to tighten Bitcoin’s liquid supply, as most firms prefer holding rather than selling.

Bitcoin dipped to $101,700 amid slower accumulation, suggesting near-term consolidation. However, the growing number of companies adopting Bitcoin for reserves supports a positive long-term outlook for the asset.

Morgan Stanley Warns Bitcoin Entering Profit-Taking Phase

Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo says Bitcoin has entered its “fall season,” a phase in its four-year market cycle when investors typically take profits before a potential downturn. Galindo compared Bitcoin’s pattern to natural seasons, describing a “three-up, one-down” rhythm where fall represents the time to “harvest” gains before winter sets in.

Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo says Bitcoin has entered its “fall season,” a phase in its four-year market cycle when investors typically take profits before a potential downturn. Galindo compared Bitcoin’s pattern to natural seasons, describing a “three-up, one-down” rhythm where fall represents the time to “harvest” gains before winter sets in.

Morgan Stanley says Bitcoin is in its “fall season.”

Strategist Denny Galindo described the current phase as the time to “harvest gains” before a possible crypto winter, citing Bitcoin’s historic three-up, one-down cycle pattern. pic.twitter.com/LTkcFvxX85

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Cyprys noted that institutional demand remains strong despite the pullback, with Bitcoin ETFs holding over $137 billion in assets.

Bitcoin’s 1.5% decline followed the bank’s cautious remarks, as some traders locked in profits. Still, consistent ETF inflows and rising institutional participation point to sustained long-term confidence in Bitcoin’s broader trajectory.

Dollar Gains as U.S. Government Reopening Lifts Market Confidence

The U.S. dollar strengthened on Wednesday as markets anticipated the end of the prolonged government shutdown. The Dollar Index ROSE 0.19% to 99.63, supported by expectations that delayed economic data, including key jobs reports, will soon be released—potentially shaping the Federal Reserve’s next rate move.

$USDJPY hits fresh nine-month highs on Yen weakness amid Optimism for an end to the US government shutdown and potential obstacles to #BankofJapan rate hikes under the new fiscally dove PM.

However, the BoJ maintains its tightening bias, and the currency’s decline raises the… pic.twitter.com/FP1h6EPKf8

The yen weakened to its lowest level since February amid speculation that Japan’s new government may delay rate hikes. Meanwhile, both the British pound and the euro edged lower against the dollar as investors favored the greenback ahead of renewed U.S. economic activity and upcoming Fed commentary.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Eyes $104K as Triangle Pattern Narrows

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is hovering NEAR $102,100, trading within a narrowing range that’s forming a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. The pattern signals that the market is coiling before a decisive breakout, with traders watching closely for a move beyond either side of the formation.

BTC found support near $101,000, where a hammer candle formed, a sign that buyers are still stepping in on dips. The 20-EMA sits just below the 50-EMA, showing short-term caution but also hinting at a potential bullish crossover if momentum builds. The RSI at 48 remains neutral, suggesting that volatility could soon expand as traders position for the next move.

A confirmed break above $104,000 WOULD likely trigger a rally toward $107,500, with further upside possible near $110,900. However, if Bitcoin slips below $99,200, a deeper pullback toward $96,200 or $93,400 could follow, where stronger historical support lies.

For now, traders are waiting for confirmation. The breakout direction, above $104,000 or below $99,000, will likely set the tone for the rest of the quarter. With volatility tightening and institutional inflows building, Bitcoin’s current pause could be the calm before a sharp year-end move.