Polymarket Makes Cautious US Comeback With Beta Launch—Will Regulators Bite?
Prediction market heavyweight Polymarket is testing the waters with a limited US beta rollout—two years after its $1.4M regulatory slap from the CFTC.
Why now? The platform's betting on crypto's friendlier 2025 regulatory climate. But skeptics whisper this might just be another 'ask forgiveness, not permission' crypto play.
Beta testers get access to political and financial markets. No word yet on whether the SEC will treat this like a securities exchange or a Vegas-style bookmaker.
One thing's certain: Wall Street's watching. If Polymarket survives contact with US regulators, traditional finance might finally admit prediction markets are more than just 'degenerate gambling.'
Prediction Market Momentum Builds As US Platforms Race To Launch New Products
Interest in wagering on real-world events has climbed since last year’s presidential election.
Kalshi has served US customers for years, and FanDuel said Wednesday it will launch a prediction product in December. Polymarket is moving to capture that demand with an exchange model that lets users set prices and back either side of an outcome.
“It’s the fastest anyone has ever gotten to market,” Coplan said. “Definitely a difficult task, but our team has been incredible and made that happen.”
CFTC-Approved Acquisition Bolsters Polymarket’s Bid To Enter Regulated Markets
The firm acquired QCEX earlier this year, a company with CFTC approval to operate a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, after the Justice Department and the CFTC dropped investigations into the crypto-betting platform.
Polymarket frames its design as closer to a market venue than a casino. “I don’t think anyone WOULD argue that the sports book model is the optimal model,” Coplan said. “There’s a monopoly on pricing. You trade against the house every time and they can set whatever prices they want and to make matters worse, if you make any money, they can ban you.”
Founder Hints $POLY Token Could Join Top Cryptocurrencies By Market Value
The company has been seeking fresh capital at a valuation between $12b and $15b after announcing an investment of as much as $2b from Intercontinental Exchange. A successful US return would give the platform a stronger footing as prediction trading battles for mainstream attention.
Google Finance said last week it will begin showing live data from Polymarket and Kalshi in the coming weeks, starting with Labs users, so people can ask about future events and tap the wisdom of the crowd. That visibility could help normalize prediction prices for a broader audience.
Speculation is also building around a potential native token. Last month, Coplan hinted at a $POLY token and suggested it could rank among the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. The tease comes as markets for elections, sports and macro outcomes gain traction.
For crypto traders, a compliant US presence would be a milestone.
A beta that proves stable onboarding, reliable settlement and meaningful liquidity could set the stage for a larger reopening, while competition from incumbents pushes the sector toward clearer rules and stronger consumer protections.
