Robinhood Doubles Down on Prediction Markets With CFTC-Regulated Platform Expansion
Robinhood just placed its biggest bet yet on the future of prediction markets.
The Trading Revolution Expands
Fresh off its crypto trading success, the retail investment platform is launching a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform that could reshape how ordinary investors approach speculative trading. No more waiting for quarterly earnings or economic reports—now users can wager on everything from election outcomes to weather patterns with regulatory oversight.
Wall Street's Newest Frontier
While traditional finance firms stick to their spreadsheets and historical models, Robinhood recognizes what crypto traders have known for years: prediction markets offer real-time sentiment analysis that's often more accurate than expert forecasts. The CFTC blessing gives this controversial space the legitimacy it desperately needed.
Of course, the same regulators who once called prediction markets 'gambling' now oversee them—proving once again that in finance, if you can't beat them, regulate them.
A New Exchange Built From MIAX Assets
As part of the plan, the venture will acquire MIAXdx, a designated contract market licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, along with its clearinghouse and swap execution facility. The assets are being purchased from Miami International Holdings, which will retain a 10% stake in the new exchange. Robinhood will control the venture, while Susquehanna will provide initial liquidity and help seed early trading activity.
The platform is scheduled to go live in 2026, offering futures, derivatives, and eventually prediction markets – a product category Robinhood says is experiencing explosive demand on its platform.
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Prediction Markets Have Become a Revenue Engine
Robinhood reported that over 1 million customers have already traded more than 9 billion contracts, making prediction markets its fastest-growing line of business by revenue. The company has increasingly woven these markets into its ecosystem through partnerships with Kalshi, offering events tied to politics, macro data, and sports.
Sports markets, including NFL and NCAA predictions, became available earlier this year as Robinhood leaned deeper into event-based trading.
A Rapidly Maturing Market Segment
Market research firm Bernstein recently noted that prediction markets are evolving into “information exchanges,” drawing significant inflows as users gravitate toward markets that price in real-world outcomes. That momentum is visible in trading volumes: U.S.-regulated Kalshi has topped Polymarket in monthly activity since September, recording $4.4 billion in October compared with Polymarket’s $3.02 billion.
Robinhood is betting that owning exchange and clearing infrastructure – rather than relying solely on partners – will give it a central role in a sector that’s quickly moving into the mainstream.
