JPMorgan Predicts Solana ETFs to Underperform: Less Than $1.5B Inflows Expected in 2025
- Why JPMorgan Expects Solana ETFs to Flop
- The $1.5B Prediction: How JPMorgan Crunched the Numbers
- Three Red Flags for Solana ETFs
- SEC Approval Likely—But Does It Matter?
- Contradictory Signals Within JPMorgan
- FAQ: Solana ETFs Explained
JPMorgan analysts forecast a lukewarm reception for Solana ETFs, projecting first-year inflows below $1.5 billion—significantly lower than Bitcoin or ethereum ETFs. The bank cites weaker investor sentiment, declining on-chain activity, and memecoin dominance on Solana as key factors. Despite high approval odds (99% on Polymarket), competition from crypto index products and fading corporate demand may dampen performance. The SEC's decision on 16 spot crypto ETFs, including 9 Solana proposals, is expected imminently.
Why JPMorgan Expects Solana ETFs to Flop
JPMorgan's crypto team, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, delivered a sobering assessment: Solana ETFs might only attract $1.5 billion in their debut year. That's barely 1/7th of Ethereum ETF inflows, mirroring Solana's DeFi TVL ratio to Ethereum's. "Investors still see Ethereum as the blue-chip smart contract platform," one BTCC analyst noted. "Solana's reputation got tangled up with memecoin mania last bull run—that's hard to shake."
The $1.5B Prediction: How JPMorgan Crunched the Numbers
The bank based its estimate on REX Osprey solana ETF's $350 million haul since July 2025 launch (under the 1940 Act). Extrapolating Ethereum's $9.6B first-year inflows using Solana's 1/7th TVL ratio lands at ~$1.5B. But even this may be optimistic—active addresses have declined 18% since November 2024, per CoinMarketCap data. "When 40% of your network activity is dog-themed tokens, institutional investors get skittish," quipped a trader on BTCC's platform.
Three Red Flags for Solana ETFs
1.CME Solana futures open interest dropped 22% QoQ
2.From 750% to near-zero, mimicking pre-ETF Bitcoin/ETH trends
3.S&P DJI's Crypto Index funds siphoned $2.1B this year alone
SEC Approval Likely—But Does It Matter?
With CME futures already live, Bloomberg's ETF team puts approval odds at "100%." VanEck, Fidelity, and Grayscale filings face Friday deadlines. Yet as one veteran trader told me: "Approval could be a 'sell the news' event—just look at SOL's price dipping 2.7% this week despite the hype."
Contradictory Signals Within JPMorgan
Another JPM team led by Kenneth Worthington had projected $2.7B-$5.2B inflows earlier this year. The disparity highlights crypto's volatility—Solana's TVL swung from $10B to $4B and back to $7B in 2024 (DeFi Llama). "Crypto moves fast," chuckled a BTCC market strategist. "By Friday, these estimates might already be obsolete."
FAQ: Solana ETFs Explained
How much inflow do analysts expect for Solana ETFs?
JPMorgan predicts ~$1.5B first-year inflows, though internal estimates vary from $1.5B-$5.2B.
When will the SEC decide on Solana ETFs?
Deadlines for 9 applications (including VanEck/Fidelity) hit this Friday, October 10, 2025.
Why is demand weaker than for Bitcoin ETFs?
Solana faces perception issues—heavy memecoin usage, fewer institutional products, and no spot-futures arbitrage yet.
