TD Cowen’s Bold Bitcoin Prediction: Where Will BTC Be in 2025?

Wall Street's crystal ball is out—and it's flashing Bitcoin.

TD Cowen just dropped its 2025 price forecast for the crypto kingpin, sparking fresh debates from boardrooms to Telegram channels. The firm's analysts, who probably still think 'HODL' is a typo, are painting a target that'll either make you stack sats or short your neighbor's mining rig.

The number? Let's just say it's ambitious enough to give goldbugs night sweats.

Meanwhile, traditional finance dinosaurs are still arguing about 'intrinsic value' while Bitcoin eats their lunch. Classic.

In Brief

• TD Cowen cautiously targets 128,000 dollars in its central scenario.
• A more bullish scenario is possible if Strategy continues its momentum.

Bitcoin: A Rise Fueled by Heavy Artillery

TD Cowen’s forecasts for the bitcoin price by December 2025 are cautious. In its central scenario, the small investment bank envisions bitcoin at $128,000, mainly driven by institutional investors.

Indeed, individual investors remain notably absent if we believe the low transaction fees, the sluggish daily active addresses count, and the number of wallet downloads.

The cause is the growing popularity of Bitcoin ETFs which generally only make one transaction per day. Since the beginning of June, these ETFs have attracted nearly 5 billion dollars, that is 302 million dollars per day. This represents six times the natural supply of about 450 BTC per day (~50 million $).

This marks a break with what we observed before 2022, when bitcoin’s rise was shaky, mainly driven by short-term speculation.

Strategy, the X Factor

In the bullish scenario, TD Cowen sees bitcoin reaching $155,000 if regulatory progress occurs (GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act). However, the bearish scenario warns of a drop to $55,000… The bank cites macroeconomic risks such as interest rate hikes or recession.

A key player in this forecast is Strategy, the largest bitcoin holder with over 601,000 BTC accumulated at an average price of $71,000. Strategy indeed plans to raise the hefty sum of $84 billion to accumulate 900,000 BTC by 2027.

Moreover, Strategy’s CEO, Michael Saylor, has never disappointed so far. “I will keep buying at the top, forever,” he likes to say. Here is the top 100 companies holding the most bitcoins:

Other investment firms are more optimistic and target $200,000. This is the case for Standard Chartered, Bernstein, and Bitwise. Vaneck and Galaxy Digital are betting on $180,000. Fundstrat, for its part, aims for $250,000 if the U.S. government acts by strengthening its strategic bitcoin reserve.

Concrete actions from the U.S. government could be the key catalyst for a spiced Bull Run extending until 2030.

Don’t miss our article: Bitcoin: The CEO of Bitwise aims for 1,000,000 $.

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