Bitcoin Teeters on the Brink: Bearish Signal Looms as Technical Pressure Mounts

Bitcoin's chart is flashing red—and traders are bracing for impact. The king of crypto faces a critical technical crossroads as bearish signals gain strength.

Here's why this matters:

The squeeze is on. Bitcoin's price action has formed a textbook technical pattern that historically precedes sharp downturns. No fancy jargon needed—it's either hold support or face the drop.

Market makers smell blood. Liquidity pools show increasing sell-side pressure, while open interest in derivatives suggests leveraged longs are getting nervous. Remember 2022? Some folks never learn.

Silver lining for degenerates. If history rhymes, this could be another 'buy when there's blood in the streets' moment. Or it might just be another reminder that crypto markets eat retail dreams for breakfast.

One thing's certain: Wall Street's 'crypto experts' will spin this as either a buying opportunity or proof of Bitcoin's demise—depending on which narrative moves their bags.

In brief

• Bitcoin is approaching a “death cross,” a bearish technical signal feared by both traditional and crypto investors.
• Despite its negative reputation, previous “death crosses” observed since 2023 have all coincided with local lows marking rebounds.
• The market has corrected by 25 % since its October peak, bringing BTC below its annual entry price of $93,507.
• The end of the US government shutdown, far from calming markets, triggered a new wave of decline, similar to a previous cycle in 2019.

The death cross signal : bearish indicator or turning point ?

Just a month after reaching a historic high above $126,000, BTC has dropped nearly 25 %, temporarily wiping out all of its gains since the start of the year.

Data from Glassnode reveal that short and long-term trend indicators are about to cross downward, a phenomenon known as a “death cross”. This configuration, where the 50-day moving average (MA50) falls below the 200-day moving average (MA200), is generally seen as a bearish signal.

Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average at $110,669 is now about to cross below the 200-day moving average at $110,459. This dynamic is often feared as it reflects weakening short-term momentum against the underlying trend.

However, historical data from the past two years challenges this pessimistic reading. Since the start of the 2023 bull cycle, each occurrence of a death cross has marked a local bottom rather than a prolonged collapse. Here are the previous noted cases :

• September 2023 : the death cross coincided with a technical floor around $25,000 ;

• August 2024 : amid the yen carry trade crisis, Bitcoin bounced back after hitting $49,000 ;

• April 2025 : in a context of uncertainties related to Trump’s tariff policies, BTC briefly fell below $75,000 before rising again ;

• November 2025 : the Bitcoin price flirts with $94,000, and some analysts already see the beginnings of a new rebound just before the expected crossover.

This fourth crossover could once again play the role of a “bull trap” rather than a harbinger of a crash.

The fragile balance of the market

The current situation is not just a technical reading. The macroeconomic context acts as a catalyst for this volatility.

The end of the US government shutdown, which occurred on November 12 after 43 days of halt, paradoxically triggered a 10 % drop in BTC within a few days. This type of reaction had already been observed in January 2019 when bitcoin declined by 9 % in the five days following the resumption of government activities.

Meanwhile, another factor weighs on the upward momentum : profit-taking behaviors among whales. It is not a panic movement but a classic pattern of the end of a bull cycle.

Such a gradual increase reflects growing distribution pressure from older holders, a typical pattern of profit-taking at the cycle’s end, and not a sudden exit by whales. This nuance is essential because it shows the observed movements are less related to a confidence crisis and more to tactical risk management by experienced investors.

As explained Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, “the fundamentals remain strong… I believe 2026 will be a good year”.

In the medium term, this combination of factors raises questions about the validity of the traditional four-year crypto cycle. Despite broader institutional adoption, the rise of Bitcoin ETFs and a Trump administration seen as pro-crypto, the market shows signs of fragility. To succeed, the market will first have to navigate this phase of instability.

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