Mike Novogratz Reveals Why Bitcoin’s $100,000 Breakout Is Still on Hold

Bitcoin's march toward the six-figure summit has hit another invisible wall. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz points to the usual suspects holding the price back—but the real story is more nuanced than just 'institutional hesitance.'

The Liquidity Lock

Market structure, not sentiment, is creating the current ceiling. Major inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs should be rocket fuel, but they're meeting equal and opposite selling pressure from other quarters. The market is digesting—absorbing new demand without letting prices run wild. It's a classic consolidation pattern playing out on a multi-trillion-dollar stage.

The Macro Anchor

Traditional finance hasn't let go of the wheel. Until the Federal Reserve signals a definitive pivot toward rate cuts, a significant chunk of institutional capital stays parked on the sidelines. Why chase crypto volatility when money market funds still offer a 'risk-free' 5%? It's the kind of short-term thinking that makes traders rich and visionaries sigh.

The Psychological Ceiling

$100,000 isn't just a number; it's a massive psychological and options market barrier. A thick layer of sell-side liquidity and hedging activity clusters around that level, creating a self-fulfilling resistance zone. Breaking it requires a catalyst powerful enough to absorb all that overhead supply in one decisive move.

The path to $100,000 is clear, but the timing remains a prisoner to old-world finance. The market has the demand; it's now waiting for the traditional system to catch up—or finally get out of the way.

Bitcoin’s sharp pullback from record highs has left investors searching for direction, and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz says the market may need more time before confidence fully returns.

Speaking about the current market setup, Novogratz said price action, not sentiment, is giving the clearest signals. He pointed to Bitcoin’s prolonged battle around the $100,000 level, describing it as a psychological level that attracted heavy buying interest.

According to Novogratz, large volumes of Bitcoin were accumulated above $100,000, and the market attempted several times to hold that level. Once it finally broke lower, selling accelerated quickly, sending prices down toward the low $80,000 range in a short period. He said this kind of move typically reflects forced selling, stop losses being triggered, and new short positions entering the market.

Why $100,000 Now Acts as Resistance

Novogratz explained that once an important support level breaks, it often turns into resistance. In Bitcoin’s case, the $100,000 mark is now a zone where many investors who bought NEAR the top are looking to exit.

These “trapped” positions, he explained, can slow down any immediate recovery, as rallies toward that level may attract selling pressure. Historically, markets rarely MOVE straight back through such major resistance on the first attempt.

This behavior also aligns with Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, which Novogratz says has recently ended.

Macro Tailwinds, but Not an Instant Price Boost

Despite near-term challenges, Novogratz remains positive about the broader environment for digital assets. He expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to shift toward rate cuts, potentially bringing interest rates closer to 2.5%, which could improve risk appetite over time.

He also expressed confidence that clearer crypto legislation in the United States is on the way. Combined with rising interest from the Middle East in blockchain infrastructure, Novogratz said the long-term case for digital assets and real-world asset tokenisation has never looked stronger.

However, he warned that industry growth does not automatically translate into immediate token price gains. Building global blockchain-based financial infrastructure, such as tokenised equities and digital banking rails, is a multi-year process.

Sideways Markets Likely Before the Next Rally

Rebuilding market depth takes time. Novogratz said retail investors typically return gradually through regular inflows, while institutions tend to step in only once momentum clearly turns positive.

As a result, he expects a period of sideways and relatively subdued trading before the next major move higher. Identifying where the market finds a durable bottom will be key.

In his view, the next major rally will come, but not before the market finishes working through excess supply and reduced liquidity.