MicroStrategy’s Odd Detour: Why MSTR Stumbles While Bitcoin Charges Ahead

Wall Street’s latest head-scratcher: MicroStrategy (MSTR) keeps stacking BTC like a crypto-cultist—yet its stock can’t keep pace with Bitcoin’s bull run. 10X Research spots blood in the water, whispering about bearish plays against the company’s leveraged bitcoin bet.

Here’s the kicker: While Bitcoin smashes through ATHs, MSTR’s stock chart looks like a hungover altcoin. Traders smell weakness—and you know what that means in finance. (Cue the hedge funds sharpening their knives.)

One cynical truth: Nothing makes bankers happier than a company that does their speculative trading for them—especially when it starts to wobble.

Note that a similar divergence between MSTR and bitcoin marked BTC’s November 2021 top.

Past data does not guarantee future results, and the latest divergence between MSTR and BTC does not necessarily mean that bitcoin’s bull run is over.

That said, its does suggest waning enthusiasm about BTC among tradfi investors. In addition, the MSTR bear put spread could offer a hedge against a potential weakness in BTC.

"Bitcoin is breaking records, but Strategy is stalling—and that divergence matters. Retail is still chasing the dream, unaware that the right-tail upside may be gone. This is where the game changes: when the middleman runs out of premium and the engine stalls," Thielen said.

"Buying a Strategy put spread can be profitable, but it is also an effective hedge against a long Bitcoin position," Thielen added.