JPMorgan Bullish: S&P 500 to Defy Economic Headwinds and Rally in 2025

Wall Street's favorite crystal ball—JPMorgan—just doubled down on stocks. Despite recession whispers and inflation hangovers, they're betting the S&P 500 will punch through barriers like a coked-up trader at a Bloomberg terminal.

The Setup: Analysts see corporate earnings doing the heavy lifting. Because when has 'fundamentals' ever stopped a good rally?

The Punchline: Liquidity tsunami meets FOMO. Institutional money's still playing catch-up after last year's crypto detour—now scrambling for 'safe' exposure. Classic.

The Kick: Watch for the Fed to 'accidentally' fuel the fire with premature rate cuts. Because nothing says 'soft landing' like blowing another asset bubble.

JPMorgan Stock Market Forecasts

Although the full-year growth expectations for the US have decreased from 2.3% to 1.5% since April, the S&P 500 has shown strong performance, gaining over 28% in four months. This performance persists despite slowdowns in the labor market and consumption, as well as ongoing inflationary pressures in the manufacturing and service sectors, which the US stock markets appear to ignore.

The second reason for JPMorgan’s positive expectations is the resilience of US companies against short-term economic slowdown risks. In the last quarter’s earnings reports, 82% of S&P 500 companies exceeded analysts’ profit expectations, and 79% surpassed revenue targets, marking the highest levels seen since the second quarter of 2021.

JPMorgan Asset Management Analysts state, “Total profit expectations for this year and next have started to MOVE upwards. The market is better distinguishing which companies are gaining and losing in Trump’s trade war.”

Advantages for Large Companies and Sectoral Distribution

Initially, market analysts projected less than 5% growth in S&P 500 company profits, but the current trend indicates an annual growth expectation of 11%. This shows that large US companies have quickly adapted to the new tariffs.

According to the bank’s analysis, small and medium-sized companies serving consumers directly face stagnation in profit expectations due to a lack of flexibility in supply chains. In contrast, large companies are able to secure exemptions from customs tariffs or turn these policies to their advantage.

“In a recent instance, despite President Trump’s announcement of a potential 100% tax on imported semiconductors, firms like Apple were exempt from the latest tariffs. Apple also announced an additional $100 billion investment in the US, and its stock gained 9% in a week.”

New regulations known as One Big Beautiful Act (OBBA) offer large companies immediate tax advantages with 100% depreciation rights on qualified new investments. Analysts suggest these incentives could significantly boost investments by large firms. JPMorgan believes that especially technology, finance, and utility sector giants can best adapt to the new economic conditions.

In conclusion, JPMorgan analysts expect significant gains in US stocks in the coming 12 months contrary to widespread belief. These predictions also imply potential rises in cryptocurrencies in the upcoming months.