Bitcoin STH NUPL Signals Room to Run: $137K FOMO Could Spark Profit-Taking Frenzy

Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH NUPL) metric flashes cool green—no euphoria yet. But watch that $137K level like a hawk.

When Lambo? Not yet.

The STH NUPL—a crystal ball for trader psychology—shows Bitcoin's recent rally hasn't triggered the 'sell everything' alarms. Yet. Retail's still cautiously optimistic rather than irrationally exuberant.

$137K: The magic number where paper hands turn to liquid.

History says when Bitcoin nears 2x its previous cycle peak, weak hands fold. At $137K, we'd hit that psychological threshold. Cue the profit-taking stampede—unless this time is 'different' (spoiler: Wall Street always says that).

Meanwhile, institutional traders are placing their bets like it's a rigged roulette table—with the house quietly stacking chips on both black and red. Some things never change.

Bitcoin Data Signals Room For Further Upside

According to top analyst Axel Adler, bitcoin still has significant room to run before reaching a level of speculative overheating. In previous macro cycles, Adler notes that the Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH NUPL) metric reaching 25% has consistently marked the peak of euphoria among short-term holders. At that point, many investors began massively taking profits, often triggering a loss of momentum or a broader correction across the market.

As of July 17, 2025, STH NUPL stands at 13%, indicating that unrealized profits among short-term holders remain moderate. Based on current dynamics, Adler estimates that for this cohort to reach a 25% unrealized profit level, Bitcoin WOULD need to break above $137,000. That price level now represents a potential trigger point for mass selling—a psychological and on-chain threshold that could lead to increased volatility or a cycle pause.

Until then, the data suggests there is room for continued bullish price action without fear of immediate profit-taking pressure. This comes at a crucial time, as the US Congress continues to deliberate on three major cryptocurrency bills during what has been a tense and uncertain “Crypto Week.” After rejecting the proposals over the past two days, the next sessions may either ease regulatory uncertainty or prolong it.

Bitcoin Holds Key Support Amid Rising Volume Surge

The 12-hour chart shows Bitcoin consolidating just below $120,000 after recently setting a new all-time high at $123,200. Despite the brief retracement, BTC remains in a strong bullish structure, trading well above all key moving averages: the 50 SMA at $110,602, the 100 SMA at $108,105, and the 200 SMA at $102,178. These levels now act as dynamic support zones, underlining the strength of the ongoing trend.

Notably, volume has spiked significantly over the past few sessions, with back-to-back high-volume candles accompanying both the MOVE to new highs and the subsequent correction. This surge in volume suggests elevated market activity, likely reflecting a mix of profit-taking and new inflows from traders positioning for further upside.

So far, the consolidation appears healthy. As long as Bitcoin holds above the short-term moving averages and $109,300, the market structure favors the bulls. A clean reclaim of $120K would open the path for another attempt at new highs, possibly targeting the $130K–$137K region.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView