A prominent crypto analyst has issued a stark warning that Bitcoin's recent lows near $60,000 do not mark the cycle bottom, forecasting a sharp correction to approximately $41,400. This predicted 10% plunge is identified as the necessary reset before the next major bull phase can commence, challenging widespread market optimism.
A crypto market analyst known as Philarekt on X has predicted the precise timeline and target for Bitcoin’s final cycle bottom. To support his predictions, the expert presented a chart comparing Bitcoin’s past market cycles from 2013 to 2026, showing when each bull run began, when the bear market ended, and how long each phase lasted.
According to Philarekt, Bitcoin’s bull phase usually begins the moment it confirms a final bottom and typically lasts about 1,450 days before reaching a peak and then reversing into a new bear market. In 2013, BTC peaked near $1,100 before falling more than 87% and forming a bottom about 365 days later. A similar trend appeared in the 2017 cycle, where Bitcoin topped around $19,000 after rallying for 1,450 days, then dropped more than 85% before bottoming in 2018, approximately 365 days later.
During the historical 2021 cycle, the same behavior was observed. Bitcoin had reached an all-time high above $69,000 before declining by over 79% into its 2022 bear market bottom. Based on this repeating structure, Philarekt believes Bitcoin has already reached its highest price target for the current cycle and is now progressing toward its final bottom, which the analyst expects to form within the same 365-day timeframe.
While many analysts still expect a new all-time high to emerge in this cycle, Philarekt identifies the rally above $126,000 on October 6, 2025, as Bitcoin’s final top. He confirmed that BTC is now in a prolonged bear market, mostly trading sideways within a broader downtrend that has pushed its price as low as $60,000 since its peak.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading above $72,500, reflecting a more than 42% decline in value from its ATH. Based on Philarekt’s projections, BTC could still fall by around 64% from the $126,000 top, potentially marking the cryptocurrency’s price bottom at around $41,400.
In terms of timing, Bitcoin is already 187 days into its bear market decline as of April 11, 2026, with only 178 days remaining until Philarekt’s projected bottom. This would place the cryptocurrency’s price floor around early October 2026, matching the timeline of its current ATH.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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