A prominent crypto founder warns Bitcoin could face one final sharp correction before its bear phase ends, despite the asset's recent surge past $70,000. The prediction suggests a potential 10%+ dump may still be imminent, casting doubt on whether a structural bottom has truly formed.
In an April 10 post on the X platform, the Alphractal founder and CEO, Joao Wedson, highlighted an emerging signal that suggests that the Bitcoin price still likely has one more trip to the downside. This projection is based on an on-chain insight that suggests that BTC’s price tends to move toward a cycle bottom when the Investor Price falls below the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price.
Wedson explained the relevance of this on-chain insight and why it emerges before a major price and an ensuing coin accumulation. According to the on-chain data expert, the Investor Price is a metric that measures the average cost of economically active coins, and, when it falls below the LTH Realized Price, suggests fresher capital has flowed in at lower prices than long-term investors paid.
Wedson wrote on X:
This usually happens after distribution phases, when demand weakens, and marginal buyers step back. Long-term holders historically sell less when the price approaches or dips below their cost basis.
As shown in the chart above, the LTH Realized Price appears to be breaking above the Investor Price, indicating a transition phase in which weaker hands exit while stronger hands gradually absorb supply. However, it is worth noting that this absorption is slower than expected, which explains why the Bitcoin price often falls into an intermediate accumulation range.
Moreover, with Investor Price below LTH Realized Price, market surges tend to quickly wane as they meet supply (selling pressure) from investors looking to exit at their breakeven prices. This phenomenon caps the current upside potential of the premier cryptocurrency, reinforcing possible sideways to downward price movements until a new demand impulse appears.
Finally, Wedson noted that the current Bitcoin price structure historically aligns with mid-cycle resets rather than final bottoms, mirroring a market “digesting” prior excesses, rebalancing cost bases, and moving coins to the more patient investors. “The environment favors time-based accumulation over momentum-driven expansion,” the Alphractal founder wrote.
As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just above the $73,100 mark, reflecting a nearly 2% jump in the past day.
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