Bitcoin’s Last Cycle Bottom Reveals When This Bleed Will End
Bitcoin's bleeding out—again. But history's got a pattern, and it's flashing a big, neon exit sign.
Decoding the Downturn
Every crypto winter feels endless while you're in it. Prices grind, sentiment sours, and your portfolio looks like it caught a cold. But zoom out on the charts, and a rhythm emerges. The last major cycle carved a definitive bottom—a moment of maximum pain that became the launchpad for the next leg up.
The Pattern in the Pain
Markets move in waves, not straight lines. That previous bottom wasn't random; it was the culmination of specific forces—oversold conditions, capitulation volume, and a fundamental reset in expectations. Sound familiar? It should. The same mechanics are at work now, just with a different date stamp.
Timing the Turnaround
So when does the music stop? While no one rings a bell at the exact bottom, the duration and depth of the last drawdown provide a crucial benchmark. It sets a timeframe, a boundary for how long this phase typically lasts before the momentum shifts. Think of it as the market's internal clock, ticking down to a pivot point.
The cynical take? Wall Street still treats crypto like a casino, but even casinos have house rules—and the house always wins in the long run. For Bitcoin, the rule is resilience. The bleed always ends. The question isn't if, but when. And the past has already drawn the map.
Analyst Points To Bitcoin’s Last Cycle Bottom For When This Downtrend Could End
In an X post, Ardi noted that during the last cycle bottom, it wasn’t just Bitcoin’s price that found a floor, but that the Open Interest was completely wiped out back then. He highlighted how leverage was reset to zero back then, which was when the real bottom accumulation started. The analyst suggested that BTC may again be on its way to finding a bottom, as the market has already flushed a lot of leverage.
However, he noted that if the last cycle is any guide, the bitcoin bottom doesn’t form until the speculative excess is almost entirely gone. CoinGlass data shows that leverage in the BTC market remains well above levels recorded at the last cycle’s bottom. Bitcoin’s open interest is currently at $43.86 billion, while the derivatives trading volume is at $87.68 billion.
Meanwhile, Ardi also commented on the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran and how it affects Bitcoin. When asked whether his analysis factored in the war for when a bottom could occur, the analyst stated that BTC’s price has already factored in most of that. He added that the worst phase for price is likely over from a war perspective.
Bitcoin has so far maintained a tight range amid the war between the U.S. and Iran. The leading crypto had climbed to $70,000 earlier in the week but faced significant selling pressure at that psychological price level.
BTC Could Rally To $80,000 This Month
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicted that Bitcoin could rally to between $75,000 and $80,000 this month. The analyst also touched on the current price action, highlighting how it has held above $65,000 and even rallied towards the $70,000 level. He added that BTC is likely to see some days of consolidation before a breakout to the upside likely occurs. This breakout also looks likely, considering that Bitcoin has been establishing this range for a while now.
A positive for Bitcoin is that the selling pressure may be easing. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish stated that the long-term holders (LTH) net position change is now easing after months of sustained net selling. This suggests that selling pressure from seasoned holders is moderating as BTC stabilizes.
At the time of writing, the BTC price is trading at around $67,800, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
