XRP’s Recovery at Risk as Short-Term Bulls Clash With Long-Term Sellers

XRP faces a critical inflection point as opposing forces battle for control.

Bullish Momentum Meets Selling Pressure

Short-term traders are pushing for upside movement while long-term holders continue dumping positions—creating a classic standoff that could determine XRP's near-term trajectory. The tug-of-war reflects deeper market uncertainties about the asset's fundamental drivers beyond legal clarity.

Technical Signals Flash Warning

Key support levels are being tested as volume patterns suggest distribution rather than accumulation. Resistance clusters have formed at critical psychological price points where previous rallies stalled.

Market Sentiment Diverges Sharply

Retail enthusiasm clashes with institutional caution—a familiar pattern in crypto where hype often outpaces actual adoption. Meanwhile, traditional finance watches from the sidelines, still wondering why every "banking partnership" announcement somehow never translates to actual banking integration.

The coming sessions will reveal whether this is merely healthy consolidation before another leg up—or the beginning of a more significant correction as reality sets in.

Can Dip Buyers Outlast Long-Term Holder Distribution?

Short- and mid-term holders appear to view the pullback as a chance to accumulate. On-chain analysis indicates that these newer market entrants have increased their supply during the dip over the past two weeks, betting on a near-term rebound. 

According to data from Glassnode, XRP’s HODL Waves, a metric that tracks how long coins have been held, reveal that two investor cohorts are becoming increasingly active. 

Those who have held their tokens between one and three months (short-term holders) currently control 9.51% of the token’s circulating supply. This group has increased its collective holdings by 8% since August 14, reflecting its conviction in a potential rebound.

Mid-term investors have also joined in “buying the dip.” Per Glassnode, the 6–12 month cohort now controls 23.19% of XRP’s circulating supply, its highest share year-to-date. This further shows renewed accumulation as XPR trades low. 

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However, the Optimism of these buyers contrasts with the behavior of longer-term holders (LTHs). This is depicted by XRP’s Liveliness, which has climbed steadily since August 19.

An asset’s liveliness tracks the movement of its long-held/dormant tokens. It does this by measuring the ratio of an asset’s coin days destroyed to the total coin days accumulated. When the metric climbs, it means that LTHs are moving their coins or selling them. 
When it falls, LTHs are moving their assets off exchanges, a MOVE seen as a bullish signal of accumulation.

On the other hand, when it climbs, LTHs are moving their coins or selling them, a trend that is now putting additional selling pressure on XRP. 

XRP Struggles for Direction 

The divergence in the behaviors of these investor cohorts shows the uncertainty surrounding XRP’s near-term trajectory. Its recovery is dependent on whether fresh demand from newer buyers can outweigh the selling pressure from seasoned investors.

In this case, it could rebound, regain the $3 mark, and climb toward $3.22.

However, if selloffs strengthen, XRP’s price could extend its decline and drop to $2.63.