Trump Reverses Biden-Era Tech Export Controls: A Strategic Shift in US-China High-Tech Trade

• US-China Tech Trade Policy Shifts

In a bold policy pivot, the TRUMP administration is dismantling Biden-era restrictions on AI chip exports to China, signaling a transactional approach to tech trade. While critics warn of risks to US technological dominance, officials argue the move will "addict" Chinese developers to American tech without ceding cutting-edge innovations. This article breaks down the implications, from rare earth mineral negotiations to TikTok’s fate, and why Trump’s 2020 playbook is back in action. --- ### Why Is Trump Rolling Back Biden’s Tech Export Controls? The Biden administration treated export restrictions as a "strategic asset" to maintain US leadership over China in critical technologies like AI chips. But under Trump, the Commerce Department has greenlit sales of Nvidia’s H20 AI accelerator and AMD processors to Chinese developers—albeit mid-tier products. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick framed this as a calibrated strategy: *"We’re letting them get hooked on our tech while keeping the crown jewels locked up."* Bloomberg reports the goal is to keep China *"one step behind what they can build, so they keep buying our chips."* Yet the move has drawn fire from hardline lawmakers who see it as a dangerous concession. --- ### How Far Will US Ease Security-Driven Trade Barriers? Tech investor Kevin Xu predicts the H20 chip relaxations could trigger a broader *"tech bargain"* between the US and China. Items on the table: - Semiconductor manufacturing tools - Rare earth minerals (crucial for EVs and defense systems) - Reciprocal market access for AI processors Despite the thaw, most US export bans, investment barriers, and sanctions remain intact—including 145% retaliatory tariffs originally meant to force China to the negotiating table. --- ### The Rare Earth Minerals Bargaining Chip Recent talks in Geneva and London yielded a temporary truce: Washington reduced some tariffs and export bans in exchange for Chinese rare earth magnets (vital for smartphones and missiles). As Eurasia Group’s Dominic Chiu notes, *"Trump isn’t ideologically wedded to controls—if he can trade chips for rare earths, he will."* This aligns with Trump’s transactional style. While he labels China a *"strategic rival,"* he’s openly praised Chinese automakers opening US factories and questioned TikTok bans over privacy concerns. --- ### Upcoming US-China Negotiations: What’s at Stake? Behind the scenes: - Marco Rubio met China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Malaysia. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may extend the August 12 deadline for tariff hikes ahead of talks with Vice Premier He Lifeng. - A Trump-Xi summit is likely before October’s Asia-Pacific economic cooperation meeting in South Korea—but only if the *"right atmosphere"* is built, Rubio cautioned. --- ### Trump’s 2020 Playbook Returns The administration’s demands mirror Trump’s earlier tactics: 1. Trade Deficit Reduction : Push for massive Chinese purchases of US goods. 2. Fentanyl Crackdown : Halt precursor chemical exports. 3. TikTok Deal : Force ByteDance to accept US operational terms. 4. Rare Earth Guarantees : Prevent China from weaponizing mineral supplies. Meanwhile, Beijing wants: - Repeal of Trump-era tariffs (e.g., 20% on fentanyl-related items). - Looser investment rules and export controls. --- ### Biden’s "Small Yard, High Fence" vs. Trump’s Deal-Making Analysts contrast Biden’s targeted tech containment with Trump’s leverage-heavy approach. As RAND’s Gerard Dipippo puts it: *"If anyone can pull off this bargaining, it’s Trump."* --- ### FAQ: US-China Tech Trade Under Trump

US-China Tech Trade Policy Shifts

What chips can now be exported to China?

Nvidia’s H20 AI accelerator and AMD’s mid-range processors—but not cutting-edge models.

Will rare earth minerals be part of deals?

Likely. China controls 60% of global supply, making them a key bargaining chip.

Is TikTok’s US future tied to these talks?

Yes. Trump wants ByteDance to comply with US data rules but opposes outright bans.