🚀 ETH ETF Inflows Surge—Yet Futures Data Reveals Traders Skeptical of the Rally!

Ethereum ETFs are soaking up capital like a sponge, but the smart money isn’t biting. Futures markets flash caution as institutional players hedge their bets—classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' behavior.

Why the disconnect? Retail FOMO meets institutional skepticism. While ETF inflows suggest bullish sentiment, open interest in ETH derivatives tells a different story: traders are stacking shorts or staying sidelined.

Pro tip: When Wall Street and crypto degens disagree, volatility follows. Buckle up—someone’s about to get squeezed.

*Bonus jab: Traders treating ETH like a meme stock—pumping the narrative while quietly offloading risk. Some things never change.

Source: SoSo Value

ETH’s speculative appetite drops

During Q2’s upswing, Open Interest (OI) hiked from $17 billion to $41 billion, pushing ETH from $1.4k to $2.8k.

This highlighted a 2.4x demand spike in the derivatives market. 

Source: CoinGlass

However,, since mid-June, demand has waned as the OI declined by $10 billion from  $41 billion to $31 billion. As expected, ETH’s price followed suit and dipped from $2.8k to $2.1k, before briefly reclaiming $2.4k at press time. 

This contraction defied the massive inflows seen in ETH ETFs. In fact, this week alone, the ETF products attracted $232M. 

The Options market painted a similar cautionary tale, especially in the mid-term. 

A time for caution?

According to the 25 Delta Skew indicator, the 1-week (orange) and 1-month (cyan) tenors jumped to 6% and 15% earlier in the week, underscoring the strong demand for short-dated calls (bullish bets). This hinted at the 18% relief bounce from $2.1k to $2.5k.  

However, the skew dropped to 1% and 3% for 1-week and 1-month tenors – A sign that the recent buying euphoria may have cleared.

On the contrary, the 3-month tenor turned negative and slipped nearly to -2%, hinting at a premium for puts (bearish sentiment) in Q3. 

Source: Leaveitas

Simply put, Futures traders have been cautious about ETH’s prospects in the mid-term, despite the short-term bullish outlook. 

Still, the mixed readings didn’t overrule the fact that ETH was in buy zone. At least based on the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio). 

This indicator tracks holders’ profitability, with potential sell pressure marking previous local peaks and bottoms. Notably, SOPR readings above 1.0, especially above 1.06, marked high unrealized profits and local peaks in 2024 and 2025. 

Readings below 1 marked bottoms and attractive buy zones though. At press time, the SOPR was at a neutral level of 1, and an extra dip could offer a great bargain if history repeats itself. 

Source: Glassnode