Bitcoin’s $3B Realized Cap Surge Signals More Fuel Left in the Rally

Bitcoin’s realized cap—a measure of the aggregate cost basis of all BTC in circulation—just pumped another $3 billion into the ecosystem. That’s not just whale-sized accumulation; it’s a structural reinforcement of the bull case.

Here’s why the market isn’t hitting the brakes yet.

The On-Chine Fuel Gauge

Realized cap growth means fresh capital is entering the network, not just paper gains from speculative trading. This metric filters out noise by valuing each coin at its last transacted price—no smoke, no mirrors. Well, maybe a few Wall Street mirrors.

Liquidity Waves Building

New money soaking into Bitcoin’s supply base creates a higher floor for prices. When weak hands sell, these diamond-pawed buyers absorb supply—classic accumulation phase behavior before parabolic moves.

The Cynic’s Corner

Sure, traditional finance will call this another bubble right up until they repackage BTC futures into leveraged ETFs. By then, the early adopters will be sipping cocktails on their blockchain-verified private islands.

This rally walks like 2021 but talks like 2017—with the added swagger of institutional FOMO. Buckle up.

Stock-to-Flow Ratio spikes 16.67%: Is BTC’s scarcity driving price?

On top of that, Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Ratio has leapt 16.67% within the same 24-hour window.

This metric reflects a deepening scarcity trend, with current supply increasingly constrained relative to newly mined coins. 

Historically, such spikes in S2F often coincide with aggressive long-term investor accumulation and precede strong bullish price trends.

Therefore, this jump in scarcity underscores the market’s expectation for higher valuations ahead.

Source: CryptoQuant

Exchange Netflows suggest modest inflow despite rising prices

Interestingly, Exchange Netflows tell a more tempered story.

Despite Bitcoin’s ongoing rally, netflows across aggregated exchanges show a modest 24-hour inflow of +579 BTC.

In fact, over the past seven days, Net Inflows stood at +697 BTC, while the 30-day change still reflects minor outflows at -114 BTC. 

This pattern suggests a balance between profit-taking and strategic accumulation. However, the limited inflow amidst rising prices highlights investor hesitation to offload large holdings. 

In this context, the market appears to be consolidating without clear sell pressure, implying confidence in further upside. 

Source: IntoTheBlock

NVT Golden Cross is rising but not signaling overheating yet

Moreover, the NVT Golden Cross is on an upswing, but still sits comfortably below the 2.2 danger zone.

The indicator stood NEAR the midpoint of its historical range, implying that while Bitcoin’s valuation is increasing faster than on-chain transaction volume, the divergence remains within healthy bounds. 

That’s good news for bulls.

A rising NVT without breaching critical thresholds means price appreciation still looks sustainable. If volume catches up, this divergence could support a stronger continuation rally.

However, the lack of overbought conditions provides room for further upside without triggering immediate correction signals.

Source: CryptoQuant

BTC breaks supply zone near $108K 

Bitcoin has officially broken above the $108K supply zone, flipping previous resistance into potential support. At the time of writing, BTC traded at $110,412. This MOVE marks a clear technical breakout as the price pushed past a historically strong ceiling.

Additionally, the MACD indicator has turned bullish, with a crossover confirming momentum strength. Parabolic SAR dots continue to trail beneath price candles, supporting the uptrend.

Therefore, the breakout could pave the way for a continued push toward $115K if buying pressure holds at current levels.

Source: TradingView

Is Bitcoin poised for a continuation toward $115K?

The surge in realized cap, rising S2F ratio, and breakout above $108K supply confirm bullish strength. While exchange flows remain modest and the NVT ratio is climbing, no signs of market overheating are present.

Therefore, Bitcoin looks primed for continuation toward the $115K zone, supported by strong momentum and accumulating investor interest.