Binance’s Spot-to-Futures Ratio Hits 1.5-Year High as Bitcoin Tops $109K—Traders Pile In

Binance just flashed its highest spot-to-futures ratio since late 2023—right as Bitcoin punches past $109K. Someone’s feeling frisky.

Spot volumes are outpacing leveraged bets by a mile, signaling a rare moment of trader sobriety (or maybe they’re just hedging before the next ‘black swan’ tweet). Either way, the market’s moving—fast.

And let’s be real: if Wall Street pulled numbers like this, they’d charge a 2% management fee just to look at the chart.

Bitcoin Futures Activity Surges as Spot-to-Futures Ratio Hits 1.5-Year High

In Maartunn’s recent QuickTake post titled “Spot to Futures Ratio (Binance) Hits 1.5-Year High,” the analyst pointed out that the ratio between spot and futures volume has reached 4.9, its highest level in 18 months.

On May 12, Binance recorded $30.17 billion in spot trading volume versus $115.56 billion in futures trading. This 4.9x difference indicates that speculative interest, often driven by leverage, currently far exceeds direct buying pressure seen in spot markets.

The Spot to Futures Ratio provides insight into the balance between actual asset purchases and derivative-based speculation. A higher ratio means that trading is more heavily concentrated in futures markets, where traders bet on price movements without owning the underlying asset.

This pattern often reflects short-term sentiment and positioning rather than long-term conviction. While elevated futures activity can amplify market moves in either direction, it may also signal caution, as traders hedge rather than accumulate. The sustained gap between spot and futures volumes indicates that speculative leverage is playing a central role in Bitcoin’s current rally.

Balanced Profitability Suggests Market Stability

Meanwhile, on-chain metrics presented by another CryptoQuant analyst, Crazzyblockk, further contextualize the broader market sentiment. According to his data, profitability across investor cohorts remains high: wallets holding BTC for less than one month are up 6.9% in unrealized gains, while short-term holders (less than six months) are seeing 10.7% gains.

Despite these elevated profit margins, there has been no significant sign of mass profit-taking or distressed selling. The Unrealized Profit/Loss (UPL) Ratio reveals that while the majority of the network is in profit, the distribution of gains across different investor groups remains relatively balanced.

This type of evenly distributed profitability has historically been associated with reduced volatility and a lower risk of sudden corrections. Crazzyblockk noted that, in previous cycles, extreme profit concentration among one group, typically short-term holders, often preceded major selloffs.

However, the current structure appears more stable, with no signs of excessive selling pressure. Although macroeconomic risks and external volatility remain factors to watch, the combination of strong price action, steady accumulation, and limited distribution suggests that the market may be preparing for a new phase, potentially leading to a breakout beyond Bitcoin’s existing all-time high.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView