BTCC Daily (9.18) | BOJ Raises Rates to 1.25%, U.S. SEC Introduces Five-Year Tokenized Stock Exemption

Top Highlights

• The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years. The yen weakened after the decision, falling toward 157.5 per dollar.

• Asian tech stocks rebounded sharply. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 1.38%, while Korea’s KOSPI gained 2.66%. SK Hynix rose 6.42%, and Samsung Electronics gained 3.37%.

• BTC rebounded to around $78,000. On September 17 ET, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of about $159 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of about $39.24 million.

Macro & Policy Outlook

Today’s Key Events

• U.S. August industrial production

• Fed Governor Bowman speaks

• Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks

Macro Headlines

1. BOJ raises rates by 25 bps to 1.25%, highest in 31 years

The Bank of Japan voted 7-2 to raise its policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, bringing it to the highest level in about 31 years. Governor Kazuo Ueda said that even after the hike, Japan’s real interest rates remain low and monetary conditions remain accommodative. He also said future policy adjustments will not follow a preset timetable and will be decided based on data at each meeting.

2. Fed completes first rate hike in three years, U.S. 10-year yield falls back toward 4.93%

The Fed raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points this week to 3.75%—4.00%, marking its first rate hike in three years. Sixteen of 18 policymakers expect at least one more hike before the end of 2026. After a sharp earlier rise, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell back toward 4.93% on Friday.

3. Bank of England holds rates steady, energy inflation remains key risk

The Bank of England kept its policy rate unchanged on September 17 and paused active gilt sales. The central bank expects higher energy prices could push UK inflation above 4% in early 2027. Governor Bailey said that if the Middle East conflict and energy shock persist, monetary policy may need to tighten further.

4. ECB official: market bets on further hikes mainly driven by energy prices

ECB Vice President Boris Vujcic said recent market pricing for further ECB rate hikes has been driven mainly by rising energy prices, but the central bank will not base its decisions solely on energy factors. The ECB’s policy rate currently stands at 2.50%, while markets have begun pricing the possibility of further hikes in the coming months.

5. Oil falls for third straight session, Brent retreats toward $103

International oil prices continued to decline as concerns over Saudi supply disruptions eased. Brent crude fell about 2% to $102.68 per barrel, while WTI dropped about 1.8% to $100.08 per barrel, marking the third consecutive trading day of losses. Saudi Arabia increased crude shipments via Oman, while inventories in the U.S., Singapore, and Europe rose, easing short-term supply pressure.

Global Asset Performance

• Equities: Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 1.38% at 65,018.95. Korea’s KOSPI Index rose 2.66% to 6,894.23, with SK Hynix up 6.42% and Samsung Electronics up 3.37%. In U.S. premarket trading, Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 0.6%, S&P 500 futures gained about 0.3%, and Dow futures rose about 0.2%.

• Crypto: CoinMarketCap data showed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 65, in the greed zone. Total crypto market capitalization was about $2.66 trillion, up around 1.9% over the past 24 hours. BTC traded near $78,300, up about 1.3% in 24 hours, while ETH was around $2,510, up about 1.5%. Among trending tokens, NEAR rose about 32.2%, while UNI gained about 24.2%.

• Energy & Metals: Brent crude fell about 2.0% to $102.68 per barrel, while WTI crude declined about 1.8% to $100.08 per barrel. Spot gold rose about 0.5% to around $4,364 per ounce, while spot silver gained about 1.7% to around $66.29 per ounce.

(Data as of September 18, 15:00 HKT)

Crypto Market Snapshot

1. Futures Capital Flow Analysis

On September 18, according to Coinglass data, BTC, ETH, ZEC, SOL, SPCX, NEAR, and other contracts led net inflows in futures trading over the past 24 hours, potentially signaling trading opportunities.

2. Bitcoin Liquidation Map

On September 18, according to Coinglass data, based on the current reference price of $78,306 on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, if Bitcoin falls below $76,000, cumulative long liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $1.06 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $80,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $630 million. Traders are advised to manage leverage prudently to avoid large-scale liquidations during market swings.

3. Bitcoin Futures Long/Short Ratio

According to Coinglass data, as of 17:00 HKT on September 18, the overall Bitcoin long/short ratio stood at 1.0247, indicating that bulls currently hold a relative advantage.

4. TradFi Futures Performance

On September 18, TradFi contracts strengthened broadly. Tech and precious metals led gains, with SOXL up 7.59%, SNDK up 5.82%, CRCL up 5.59%, silver XAG up 5.07%, and gold XAU up 1.83%. Energy was relatively weaker, with CL down 1.38%. In open interest, KORU, SPCX, and CRCL rose 5.77%, 4.70%, and 4.64%, respectively, while SNDK and MU saw notable declines in OI.

5. On-Chain Monitoring

• According to Lookonchain, 11 newly created addresses over the past three days are suspected to be controlled by the same whale. The whale sold about 602 BTC on Hyperliquid while buying 18,780 ETH, with both sides valued at about $45.83 million.

• According to Onchain Lens, a HYPE whale currently holds a long position of about 1.38 million HYPE, worth around $119 million, with unrealized gains of about $65.74 million.

• Four new addresses accumulated 6,972 ETH, worth about $17.15 million, at an average purchase price of around $2,460.69, then deposited the ETH into Lido for staking.

Blockchain Headlines

• On September 17 ET, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of about $159 million, including about $184 million into BlackRock’s IBIT, while Fidelity’s FBTC saw net outflows of about $16.64 million.

• On September 17 ET, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of about $39.24 million, marking the third consecutive trading day of outflows, with ETHA seeing net outflows of about $42.86 million.

• The U.S. SEC introduced a five-year regulatory exemption framework for tokenized stock trading, requiring related tokens to provide the same shareholder rights as traditional shares and excluding synthetic tokens that only track stock prices.

• The U.S. CFTC issued a no-action position, saying that under specific conditions, it would not recommend enforcement action solely because software developers are not registered as introducing brokers.

• The U.S. Senate’s key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act failed 49-50, while bipartisan lawmakers continue negotiating market-structure legislation.

• S&P Global agreed to acquire smart-contract security company OpenZeppelin. The transaction amount was not disclosed.

• Stablecoin payments company dtcpay completed a $25 million Series A funding round, with participation from SBI Group and others.

• World launched the “World Money” app, integrating stablecoins and Stripe payment infrastructure while adding payment and reward functions.

Institutional Insights · Daily Picks

• JPMorgan: The bank said Bitcoin may gain more market support relative to gold if ETF-related hedging pressure eases further.

• Goldman Sachs Asset Management: Simon Dangoor said most Bank of England policymakers remain focused on upside inflation risks, while waiting to see whether the energy shock creates more persistent second-round effects. If inflation pressure spreads, the policy environment may force the central bank to tighten further.

• UBS: The bank said widening fiscal deficits, rising government debt, the possibility of longer-term dollar weakness, and a potential Fed shift toward easing next year should continue to support medium- to long-term gold demand.

• Daiwa Capital Markets: Chris Scicluna said that if Japan’s inflation and domestic demand remain resilient, the possibility that the BOJ raises its policy rate further to 1.50% before year-end remains a path markets need to watch.