BTCC Daily (9.16) | CLARITY Act Stalls Again, ARB Rises 18% Against the Market

Top Highlights

• The U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act by a 49-50 vote, falling short of the 60-vote threshold needed to end debate. The procedure may still be reconsidered.

• The Fed will announce its September rate decision on Wednesday. Markets raised pricing for a 25-basis-point hike to around 93%, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly broke above 5% on Tuesday.

• Asian tech stocks rebounded, with Korea’s KOSPI closing up 1.37% and SK Hynix rising 4.08%. BTC, however, pulled back to around $75,800, leaving the broader crypto market under pressure.

Macro & Policy Outlook

Today’s Key Events

• U.S. August retail sales

• U.S. EIA crude oil inventories

• Fed September interest-rate decision

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh press conference

Macro Headlines

1. Fed decision approaches, 25 bps hike odds rise to around 93%

The Fed will announce its September interest-rate decision on Wednesday Eastern Time. After U.S. core inflation came in above expectations and oil prices remained elevated, markets raised pricing for a 25-basis-point hike to around 93%. Beyond this week’s hike, attention will focus on the policy statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks on the potential policy path for October and December.

2. U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreats to around 4.99% after breaking above 5%

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5% on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since 2007, before retreating to around 4.99% during Asian trading. Recent oil-price gains, inflation pressure, and expectations of further tightening by major central banks have jointly pushed long-end global yields higher. Bond markets continue to await the Fed’s guidance on the future rate path.

3. UK August CPI rises to 3.1%, above July’s 2.9%

The UK consumer price index rose 3.1% year over year in August, accelerating from 2.9% in July. Core CPI rose 2.6% year over year, while services inflation climbed to 3.4%. The latest data reinforced the view that UK inflation remains sticky, though markets have not significantly raised pricing for an immediate Bank of England rate hike.

4. BOJ rate-hike odds this week rise to around 80%

Markets raised pricing for the Bank of Japan to lift its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on Friday to around 80%. Japan’s August exports rose 19.3% year over year, while imports increased 28%, reflecting a notable rise in energy import costs. In addition to whether the BOJ hikes this week, markets will watch how it describes the pace of future policy normalization.

5. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rise, oil retreats from highs

International oil prices pulled back after their earlier rally, as an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories eased some near-term supply-tightness expectations. However, risks to Middle East energy infrastructure and shipping security have not faded, and Brent crude remains elevated above $100 per barrel.

6. CLARITY Act procedural vote fails 49-50

On September 15, the U.S. Senate held a procedural vote on the motion to proceed to H.R.3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. The vote failed 49-50, falling short of the 60-vote threshold needed to invoke cloture. The vote was procedural and did not represent a final vote on the bill itself.

Global Asset Performance

• Equities: Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 0.69% at 63,923.00. Korea’s KOSPI Index closed up 1.37% at 6,717.97, with SK Hynix rising 4.08% and Samsung Electronics gaining 2.01%. In U.S. premarket trading, Nasdaq 100 futures, S&P 500 futures, and Dow futures were all up about 0.2%.

• Crypto: The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 63, in the greed zone. Total crypto market capitalization was about $2.58 trillion, down around 2.7% over the past 24 hours. BTC traded near $75,800, down about 2.5% in 24 hours. Among trending tokens, ARB rose against the market by about 18.9%, while XRP fell about 7.6%.

• Energy & Metals: International oil prices pulled back from the previous session’s highs, with Brent crude trading near $108 per barrel and WTI around $105 per barrel. Spot gold rose about 0.8% to around $4,327 per ounce, while spot silver gained about 1.5% to $64.59 per ounce.

(Data as of September 16, 15:00 HKT)

Crypto Market Snapshot

1. Futures Capital Flow Analysis

On September 16, according to Coinglass data, BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, and other contracts led net outflows in futures trading over the past 24 hours, potentially signaling trading opportunities.

2. Bitcoin Liquidation Map

On September 16, according to Coinglass data, based on the current reference price of $75,696 on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, if Bitcoin falls below $74,000, cumulative long liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $1.15 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $78,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $1.76 billion. Traders are advised to manage leverage prudently to avoid large-scale liquidations during market swings.

3. Bitcoin Futures Long/Short Ratio

According to Coinglass data, as of 16:00 HKT on September 16, the overall Bitcoin long/short ratio stood at 0.4815, indicating that bears currently hold a relative advantage.

4. TradFi Futures Performance

On September 16, TradFi contracts were broadly stronger. Tech-related products led gains, with SOXL up 5.73% and SKHYNIX and SKHY rising 3.15% and 2.51%, respectively. Precious metals also moved higher, with XAG up 2.72% and XAU up 1.41%. Crude oil rose moderately, with CL up 0.80% and OI increasing 13.38%. SPCX was the weakest performer, falling 2.87%, while 24-hour trading volume declined notably across most products.

5. On-Chain Monitoring

• According to Lookonchain, whale address 0x4553 swapped 512 WBTC and 354 cbBTC for 26,924 ETH, worth about $64.57 million.

• A whale address currently holds an 8x leveraged long position of about 45,000 ETH, worth around $107 million, with an average entry price of about $2,486 and a liquidation price of about $2,182.

• According to Lookonchain, an address linked to MARA bought about 1,292 BTC through FalconX, worth around $98.64 million.

Blockchain Headlines

• On September 15 ET, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $450 million, including about $215 million from FBTC and about $162 million from IBIT.

• On September 15 ET, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of about $141 million, including about $97.97 million from ETHA, while ETHB saw net inflows of about $12.38 million.

• The U.S. Senate held a procedural vote on the motion to proceed to the CLARITY Act, which failed 49-50 and did not reach the 60-vote threshold.

• Circle’s Arc plans to open its public mainnet on September 16, with BlackRock, DTCC, ICE, Mastercard, Visa, Standard Chartered, and others participating as initial validator nodes.

• The U.S. House Ways and Means Committee plans to review tax rules related to digital assets, with topics involving the tax-treatment framework for crypto assets.

• India’s parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance plans to hold an important hearing on virtual digital asset regulation to further discuss India’s crypto-asset regulatory policy.

• The U.S. SEC will hold a roundtable on 24-hour stock trading on September 17, discussing overnight trading regulation, market surveillance, clearing and settlement, liquidity, and investor protection.

• Arbitrum plans to unlock about 92.65 million ARB on September 16, worth around $12.7 million and accounting for about 1.59% of circulating supply.

• The Ethereum Foundation plans to hold a community AMA on September 16 around the Hegotá upgrade, discussing Ethereum’s future protocol upgrade roadmap.

• Tether announced that USDT has integrated with infrastructure related to the Zama privacy protocol to support privacy-preserving stablecoin use cases.

Institutional Insights · Daily Picks

• JPMorgan: Ahead of the Fed decision, analysts maintained a “tactically cautious/neutral” stance, saying markets largely expect a 25-basis-point hike and that this meeting is unlikely to deliver overly clear guidance on the next steps for policy.

• Goldman Sachs: The bank said the Fed may want to reduce market confidence in another rate hike in October. Chair Kevin Warsh may use the press conference to emphasize that policymakers need to assess incoming economic data before deciding on the next policy move.

• Commerzbank: The bank noted that gold has remained resilient despite elevated Treasury yields. Concerns over the fiscal outlook and rising U.S. political risks may continue to provide some support for gold.

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia: FX strategist Carol Kong said a 25-basis-point hike has been mostly priced in by markets. If the Fed hikes but downplays the likelihood of consecutive hikes, the dollar could give back part of its initial gains.