Leopold, the 'AI Stock God' Who Lost Big in July, Is Back—This Time Without High Leverage

Original title: "The 'AI Stock God' Who Lost Big in July Is Already Back"
Original author: Azuma, Odaily News

Remember Leopold Aschenbrenner, the "AI Stock God"?

Leopold and his fund, Situational Awareness, were the most sought-after new investment legends on Wall Street just a few months ago. However, at the end of July, due to a sharp pullback in AI-related stocks compounded by high leverage, the fund suffered major losses and was forced to liquidate its public market positions on a large scale, selling most of its stock portfolio at a discount to Ken Griffin's Citadel.

A spectacular AI investment myth seemed to come to an end. But unexpectedly, Leopold, who had to clip his wings to survive, did not fade away. Just over a month after the debacle, the former "AI Stock God" has stormed back into the public markets. And it's still the familiar AI stocks, but this time, he seems ready to play a different game.

Who Is the "AI Stock God"? (Skip if familiar)

In March this year, we first introduced Leopold in the article "SBF's Protégé Turned $225 Million into $5.5 Billion in One Year".

Leopold worked at FTX's Future Fund in 2022 and stayed with the team until FTX collapsed. In 2024, Leopold wrote a 165-page mega-paper titled "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead" and founded a fund of the same name that year, serving as its chief investment officer.

Situational Awareness focuses on investment opportunities in the AI industry chain. The fund's public holdings were "only" $225 million in Q4 2024; in the Q4 2025 holdings disclosure released in February this year, that figure skyrocketed to $5.5 billion; and by the Q1 holdings disclosure in May, it had risen to $13.7 billion... Although those numbers are now meaningless, in the Q2 holdings report released today, the fund's notional holdings value has reached $20.2 billion.

· Odaily note: In the statistical caliber of US stock 13F filings, the market value shown for option assets is usually the "notional value" of the underlying stocks, not the premium cost actually paid by the fund.

With explosive investment returns, Leopold and Situational Awareness gained immense fame and became one of the most-watched AI investment indicators on the internet. Leopold was also dubbed the "AI Stock God" by a market eager to create idols.

Making a Comeback

Rumors of the "AI Stock God's" return first emerged on September 10, when a cluster of unusually concentrated AI stock options trades made the market sense Leopold's presence again.

US stock analyst Paradis disclosed on X that day that since last Friday, a series of highly concentrated, massive customized options (FLEX Options) buy orders related to AI had appeared in the market, with total premiums paid of approximately $315 million, corresponding to a Delta exposure of about $1.1 billion and a Vega exposure of about $5.8 million.

· SNDK: January expiry 2040/2200 call options—$57 million premium, $198 million Delta, $1.04 million Vega.

· BE: January expiry 250/310 call options—$48 million premium, $140 million Delta, $565,000 Vega.

· INTC: January expiry 105/115 call options—$48 million premium, $185 million Delta, $870,000 Vega.

· CRWV: January expiry 105/115 call options—$43 million premium, $160 million Delta, $770,000 Vega.

· DRAM: January expiry 65/70 call options—$43 million premium, $173 million Delta, $855,000 Vega.

· SKHY: January expiry 190/210 call options—$39 million premium, $148 million Delta, $710,000 Vega.

· AMD: January expiry 540/580 call options—$36 million premium, $193 million Delta, $1.08 million Vega.

Paradis did not confirm at the time that Leopold was behind these trades, but suspected from the position structure (the specific underlying assets highly overlapped with Situational Awareness's previously disclosed public holdings) that Leopold had returned to the market, and emphasized that trading desks at Nomura (NMR) and Goldman Sachs (GS) both believed there was "the same mysterious buyer" behind these options operations.

Subsequently, CNBC, citing people familiar with the matter, confirmed that Leopold is indeed back!

Sources told CNBC that Situational Awareness has indeed become active again in the options market and recently bought options on AMD (AMD), Bloom Energy (BE), CoreWeave (CREV), SK Hynix (SKHY), SanDisk (SNDK), and the DRAM ETF (DRAM), with trades occurring late last week and early this week.

Clearly, Leopold has not fundamentally changed his AI investment thesis because of July's debacle. On the contrary, judging from the positions exposed so far, he is still betting on the same main theme—AI computing power and infrastructure.

This is also the most noteworthy aspect of Leopold's return. The July disaster does not simply prove that Leopold's judgment on AI was wrong. What was truly fatal was the simultaneous combination of directional bets, concentrated positions, and leverage. And now, Leopold, who has stormed back, clearly realizes this.

The Core Change: Leverage!

If we only look at the positions exposed so far, Leopold's investment direction has hardly changed, but compared to his playbook before July, he has clearly toned it down significantly this time.

According to a Financial Times report on September 11, Situational Awareness is rebuilding its public market portfolio and has begun working with a new broker, Clear Street. Leopold has told the broker that the fund will use significantly lower leverage than before.

This is perhaps the most direct lesson from July's debacle. Previously, Situational Awareness simultaneously bet on high positions and high leverage in AI stocks. Once the market moved against them, losses quickly transmitted to the financing side, ultimately forcing them to unwind positions at the worst possible time.

And this time, he clearly doesn't dare to do that again. In his letter to investors after the July losses, Leopold already stated that future public market investments would adopt a more "fully paid-for" approach, meaning using the fund's own capital to hold stocks or buying options with premiums fully paid upfront, to reduce financing and forced liquidation risks.

This also explains why FLEX Calls occupy such an important position in this rebuilding. The cost of buying call options is the premium, and even if the underlying moves completely against expectations, the loss is typically capped at that premium. For Leopold, this approach still provides significant upside exposure but avoids the forced liquidation due to margin pressure that plagued his previous financed positions.

Of course, there is also a more practical, even somewhat awkward reason—this time, the low leverage is not entirely Leopold's proactive choice.

On September 11, Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that JPMorgan has ended its lending relationship with Situational Awareness. JPMorgan was previously one of Situational Awareness's main lenders... So, Leopold's reduction in leverage this time is partly a proactive move to reduce risk and partly a reflection of the changed financing environment.

The Second Act of the "AI Stock God"

From $225 million to over $20 billion in the spotlight, to the collapse in July, and now back in the market, Leopold's journey can hardly be summed up by the four words "AI Stock God." But at least for now, July's debacle has not made him abandon his judgment on the AI industry chain; instead, it has prompted him to re-examine positions and leverage.

Of course, reducing leverage does not mean the risk has disappeared. AMD, Intel, SanDisk, CoreWeave, SK Hynix... These are still extremely volatile AI trades, and Leopold is still betting on a crowded and expensive track.

Last time, he lost because he didn't wait until the market validated his judgment; this time, whether he can survive until that day may be the real highlight of the "AI Stock God's" second act.