BTCC Daily (9.7) | KOSPI Jumps 4.61%, Bitcoin ETFs See $987 Million in Weekly Net Inflows

Top Highlights

• U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, far above expectations. Market pricing for a September Fed rate hike rose back to around 57%, with attention now turning to this week’s PPI and CPI data.

• Asian semiconductor stocks rebounded sharply. Korea’s KOSPI Index closed up 4.61%, with SK Hynix rising 8.26% and Samsung Electronics gaining 5.68%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.12%.

• BTC continued to trade around $80,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $987 million in net inflows last week, marking the third consecutive week of inflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw $218 million in net inflows over the same period.

Macro & Policy Outlook

Today’s Key Events

• U.S. markets closed for Labor Day

• Eurozone September Sentix Investor Confidence Index

• Eurozone Q2 GDP revised reading

Macro Headlines

1. Strong payrolls lift rate-hike expectations, Fed September hike odds rise to around 57%

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the previous market expectation of around 56,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year over year. The strong labor-market data renewed expectations that the Fed may continue tightening policy, with interest-rate markets now pricing the probability of a September rate hike at around 57%. Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI reports will be the most important data releases before the September FOMC meeting.

2. U.S.-Iran maritime conflict escalates again, Brent crude rises above $97

After the U.S. military attacked three Iranian oil tankers, Iran launched counterattacks against U.S. naval vessels and announced a new restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose to around $97.48 per barrel, while WTI crude climbed to $92.62 per barrel. Over the past 10 days, only about 10 commodity vessels per day on average passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the lowest level since May.

3. Japan’s foreign-exchange reserves fall by $79.6 billion in August, largest monthly drop on record

Japan’s Ministry of Finance data showed that foreign-exchange reserves fell from $1.287 trillion to $1.208 trillion at the end of August, a monthly decline of $79.6 billion, or 6.18%, the largest on record. Between July 30 and August 26, Japan spent ¥15.4 trillion intervening in the currency market, also a record monthly intervention amount, mainly by selling dollars and buying yen to support the exchange rate.

4. Bank of Japan September hike expectations keep rising, markets nearly fully price 25 bps move

Takuji Aida, an economic adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, expects the Bank of Japan may raise rates at its September 17-18 meeting and maintain a quarterly pace of hikes through January next year. Interest-rate markets are now close to fully pricing a 25-basis-point BOJ rate hike in September to 1.25%. The yen recently traded near 156 against the dollar.

5. ECB expected to raise rates by 25 bps this week, Deutsche Bank sees another hike in December

Markets broadly expect the European Central Bank to raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 10 meeting, lifting the deposit rate to 2.5%. Higher energy prices pushed Eurozone inflation back above 3% in August. Deutsche Bank has raised its rate forecast and now expects another 25-basis-point hike in December, taking the terminal rate to around 2.75%.

Global Asset Performance

• Equities: Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 2.12% at 66,399.84. Korea’s KOSPI Index closed up 4.61% at 6,995.40, with SK Hynix rising 8.26% and Samsung Electronics gaining 5.68%, led by semiconductor stocks. U.S. markets were closed on September 7 for Labor Day, including the NYSE, Nasdaq, and U.S. bond market, leaving equity-index futures relatively quiet.

• Crypto: The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 74, in the greed zone. Total crypto market capitalization was about $2.71 trillion, up about 0.2% over the past 24 hours. BTC traded near $79,700, while ETH traded around $2,504. Among trending cryptocurrencies, TAO rose about 13%, LINK gained about 11%, and ZEC remained elevated near $1,200.

• Energy & Metals: Brent crude rose about 1.25% to $97.48 per barrel, while WTI crude climbed to $92.62 per barrel. Spot gold fell about 0.6% to $4,402.86 per ounce, while spot silver also fell about 0.6%, trading near $66 per ounce.

(Data as of September 7, 15:00 HKT)

Crypto Market Snapshot

1. Futures Capital Flow Analysis

On September 7, according to Coinglass data, BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, XRP, and other contracts led net outflows in futures trading over the past 24 hours, potentially signaling trading opportunities.

2. Bitcoin Liquidation Map

On September 7, according to Coinglass data, based on the current reference price of $79,416 on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, if Bitcoin falls below $78,000, cumulative long liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $760 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $81,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $630 million. Traders are advised to manage leverage prudently to avoid large-scale liquidations during market swings.

3. Bitcoin Futures Long/Short Ratio

According to Coinglass data, as of 16:00 HKT on September 7, the overall Bitcoin long/short ratio stood at 1.3913, indicating that bulls currently hold a relative advantage.

4. TradFi Futures Performance

On September 7, semiconductor-related products were among the stronger performers in TradFi contracts. SOXL rose 6.18%, while SKHYNIX and MU gained 2.70% and 1.63%, respectively. Their 24-hour OI also increased by 15.45%, 5.61%, and 10.20%. Commodities were relatively weaker, with XAU down 0.30%, XAG down 0.42%, and CL down 0.88%. Trading volume increased significantly across most products, showing a clear rise in market activity.

5. On-Chain Monitoring

• According to Onchain Lens, a whale deposited 620,420 LINK into Coinbase, worth about $7.6 million. Over the past three weeks, the address has deposited a cumulative 2.41 million LINK into Coinbase, worth about $26.04 million.

• According to Ember, the 433,000 HYPE previously requested for redemption by Hyperliquid development team HyperLabs has arrived, worth about $38.14 million, and was later transferred to 11 addresses. The team currently has about 241 million HYPE staked.

• According to Onchain Lens, whale Loracle’s newly added positions over the past two days have accumulated losses of about $10.6 million, including $4.6 million on SNDK, $4.2 million on PONS, and $1.61 million on MU.

• According to Ember, Garrett Jin, the largest ZEC short whale entity, holds a 32,760 ZEC short position. As ZEC rose to around $1,200, its unrealized loss widened to about $25.7 million. The entity also holds BTC long positions worth about $107 million.

Blockchain Headlines

• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $987 million in net inflows last week, marking the third consecutive week of inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT saw $692 million in net inflows, while Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB recorded $138 million.

• U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $218 million in net inflows last week, also marking the third consecutive week of inflows. BlackRock’s ETHA saw $136 million in net inflows, while ETHB recorded $81.85 million.

• U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis said that if Congress fails to pass the CLARITY Act in this session, the next opportunity for similar crypto market-structure legislation may not come until 2030. The Senate is expected to hold a procedural vote on September 15.

• A petition submitted to South Korea’s National Assembly calling for another two-year delay to virtual-asset taxation has received more than 32,000 signatures. The Korean government currently still plans to implement virtual-asset taxation from January 2027.

• South Korea’s National Tax Service said that even if an overseas virtual-asset service provider has gone bankrupt, related accounts held by Korean residents still fall within foreign financial account reporting requirements. Korea reported about KRW 10.5 trillion in overseas digital assets in 2026.

• Hanwha Investment & Securities has built a tokenized securities platform based on Avalanche. The system also plans to support both Avalanche and enterprise blockchain Hyperledger Besu.

• Harmony proposed two governance plans to shut down its mainnet, which has been running since 2019, migrate ONE tokens to Ethereum, and shift its business focus toward an AI video “remix economy.”

• French Bitcoin treasury company Capital B bought 376 BTC for €25.3 million, bringing its total holdings to 3,521 BTC. Its year-to-date Bitcoin yield is 2.17%.

• Vitalik Buterin said the computational cost of SNARK zero-knowledge proofs could fall to within 10 times that of ordinary computation by 2030, adding that the efficiency of related cryptographic technologies is still improving rapidly.

Institutional Insights · Daily Picks

• Goldman Sachs: Asia-Pacific chief equity strategist Timothy Moe maintained a 12,000 target for the KOSPI Index, arguing that the market is underestimating how long AI data-center investment could sustain the memory-chip demand cycle. The target implies more than 70% upside from current KOSPI levels.

• Goldman Sachs: Daan Struyven, co-head of commodities research, said oil prices could rise to around $120 per barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East escalate further and severely disrupt energy transportation. If regional exports normalize, prices could fall back toward $80.

• Deutsche Bank: The bank expects the European Central Bank to raise rates not only in September but also again by 25 basis points in December, pushing the terminal rate to around 2.75%. The main drivers are elevated energy prices and continued inflation pressure from the Iran situation.

• CryptoQuant: Analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin has just gone through its most intense deleveraging episode since 2023, and traders have now re-entered the market. Binance BTC open interest has risen to $9.6 billion, above the 180-day average of $8.3 billion, but leverage rebuilding too quickly could trigger another concentrated deleveraging event.

• Deutsche Bank: The bank maintained its “Buy” rating on Robinhood and raised its price target from $115 to $136. Analyst Brian Bedell said Robinhood Chain’s fee revenue has grown rapidly, reaching $10.8 million over the past five days, already well above the firm’s previous forecast for the entire third quarter.