Oil Prices Fluctuate! Iran to Meet Gulf Six, Red Sea West Coast Ceasefire, Middle East Shows Signs of Easing

According to a report by the Financial Times, foreign ministers of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries plan to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on September 14 (next Monday) in the Omani coastal city of Salalah. The meeting, led by Oman, aims to seek support for a temporary agreement to regulate the passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, according to CCTV News, the Supreme Political Council of Yemen's Houthi movement issued a statement saying that fighting in the provinces along the Red Sea west coast has stopped, and called on all parties to pressure Saudi Arabia to prevent further escalation in the region.

Stimulated by the news, international oil prices fell, with Brent crude dropping nearly 2.0% intraday to $105.57 per barrel. At the same time, Bitcoin fell below $77,000, and US stock futures rose across the board. Spot gold rose 1% to $4,357.59 per ounce.

Salalah Meeting: Seeking Multilateral Endorsement for Hormuz Agreement

According to the Financial Times, citing two people familiar with the matter, the meeting is scheduled for September 14 in Salalah, Oman. One of the sources said that details have not been finalized, but several countries have confirmed attendance and the meeting is expected to proceed as planned.

This will be the first meeting between senior diplomats of the six GCC countries and senior Iranian officials since the US and Israel launched a war against Iran in February this year. GCC members include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. Despite Iran's previous missile and drone attacks on Arab neighbors, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have maintained diplomatic communication channels with Iran.

According to sources, Iran and Oman hope to use the GCC's endorsement to push the US to lift its blockade of Iranian ports. For the GCC countries, their demand is to ensure that any agreement is temporary in nature and can guarantee the normal passage of commercial ships through the strait.

About two weeks ago, Tehran and Muscat publicly stated that they were finalizing a temporary arrangement—commercial ships would enter the Strait of Hormuz through Iranian waters and exit mainly through Omani territorial waters. Omani territorial waters span the Strait of Hormuz, giving it a unique geopolitical advantage in this mediation.

US-Iran Differences Remain Deep, Full Reopening of Strait Faces Many Obstacles

Despite the positive momentum in mediation, diplomatic sources warn that the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still depends on an agreement between the US and Iran.

According to the Financial Times, citing sources, the US has made clear to mediators that it will not return to the memorandum of understanding signed with Iran in June this year, but insists on reaching a more comprehensive agreement that must include nuclear-related issues.

Iran, for its part, insists that even if an agreement is reached with Oman on the strait issue, it will only allow the full reopening of the strait after the US meets its conditions. Iran's conditions include: lifting the blockade of its ports, restoring waivers allowing it to sell oil, and gaining access to some of its frozen overseas assets.

Previously, the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, originally intended to extend a 60-day ceasefire, gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and promote final negotiations on ending the war and Iran's nuclear program. However, the two sides subsequently accused each other of violating the agreement—part of the dispute stemmed from differences over the transit methods of commercial ships—leading to another cycle of escalation. Currently, there are no direct negotiations between the US and Iran, but mediators maintain back-channel diplomatic communications between the two sides. It is reported that a Qatari delegation visited Tehran twice last week to promote a new round of diplomatic proposals.

Houthi Ceasefire Statement: Signs of Easing in the Red Sea

According to CCTV News, the Supreme Political Council of Yemen's Houthi movement issued a statement saying that fighting in the provinces along the Red Sea west coast has stopped, and claimed that "the armed forces previously mobilized by Saudi Arabia to threaten relevant areas of Yemen have been expelled."

The Houthis called on all parties to pressure Saudi Arabia to stop deploying additional armed forces and personnel to sensitive areas such as the Red Sea west coast, in order to maintain navigation safety in the area and avoid escalation. As of press time, Saudi Arabia has not responded.

The background to this statement is that the Houthis have recently launched an offensive aimed at strengthening their control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—another critical global maritime trade chokepoint. The simultaneous tension in the two strategic waterways is a major factor pushing Brent crude prices to $105 per barrel.

Market Focus: Can the Temporary Agreement Be Implemented?

For the energy market, the most critical question at present is: can next Monday's Salalah meeting push the temporary Hormuz agreement to make substantial progress?

Trump previously claimed that the Strait of Hormuz was open, but according to the Financial Times, energy exports from Gulf countries are still severely suppressed, and imported goods through the waterway also cannot pass normally.

Whether the current diplomatic window can be translated into an actionable agreement still depends on multiple variables: whether the GCC can reach consensus at the Salalah meeting, whether the US attitude toward Iran's conditions softens, and whether the Houthi ceasefire statement can gain recognition from all parties and be sustained. Investors are closely watching the subsequent impact of these developments on oil price trends.