America's AI Capital Gamble Is a Bet on the Dollar's Fate

Deutsche Bank notes that the U.S. is betting on AI at an unprecedented scale, while blockchain asset tokenization is reshaping the dollar's global accessibility. But the cost is that the dollar is transforming from a traditional safe-haven anchor into a high-risk AI bet—once the business model is disproven, capital flight will be triggered instantly, dealing a direct blow to the dollar, and tokenization accelerates capital inflows in tailwinds, which also means it will accelerate outflows in headwinds.

The U.S. is mobilizing capital at an unprecedented scale, deeply binding the AI race to dollar hegemony. The logic of this gamble is clear and aggressive: use full opening of capital markets to fund AI infrastructure, use blockchain technology to reshape the global accessibility of dollar assets, and then use AI leadership to reinforce the dollar's status. But the inherent fragility of this model is equally evident—the dollar is becoming more like a high-risk stock than a traditional safe-haven anchor.

According to Zhuifeng Trading Desk, in a foreign exchange special report released by Deutsche Bank on September 3, U.S. companies are expected to invest about $800 billion in AI capital expenditures this year, AI venture capital has raised over $400 billion this year, and the two largest AI labs alone have raised nearly $217 billion combined, with valuations approaching $1 trillion each. Meanwhile, hyperscale tech companies such as Google, Meta, Amazon, and Oracle have raised about ten times their 2020–2024 annual average through the investment-grade credit market this year.

The impact of this capital mobilization has already transmitted directly to the dollar's structural risks. As U.S. funding sources shift from official long-term capital to private short-term tech capital, the dollar's correlation with the stock market is rising, and its traditional risk-hedging properties are weakening.Once the AI business model is disproven, or the U.S. falls behind in the AI race, the dollar will face severe downward pressure.

Capital Flood: Three Funding Channels Open Simultaneously

The U.S. is raising funds on a massive scale through three channels simultaneously: private equity, public debt, and equity markets.

In private markets, AI venture capital has raised over $400 billion this year, with over 90% of the largest deals concentrated in the U.S., and the annualized growth rate is triple last year's. In debt markets, hyperscale tech companies have been forced to turn to bond financing on a large scale for the first time—Google, Meta, Oracle, and Amazon have raised about ten times their 2020–2024 annual average through the investment-grade credit market this year. In public equity markets, Google completed its first secondary offering since its 2004 IPO in June 2026, raising $85 billion; SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history at a market value of nearly $2 trillion.

The backdrop to this financing wave is America's widening twin deficits—a fiscal deficit exceeding 6% of GDP and a current account deficit approaching 4% of GDP. In the absence of domestic fiscal savings, the incremental demand for AI capital expenditure must be filled by foreign funds. Deutsche Bank data shows that in the second quarter of 2026, the U.S. attracted over $400 billion in foreign equity capital in a single quarter, far exceeding any historical quarterly level, and has significantly surpassed debt capital inflows—which had long been the main source of U.S. capital account financing.

Notably, the long-term willingness of foreign official sectors to allocate to U.S. Treasuries is declining due to geopolitical tensions, but the attractiveness of tech assets is filling this gap through private channels such as retail investors. SpaceX reportedly reserved about 30% of its IPO shares for retail investors, more than triple the traditional IPO allocation, reflecting a clear awareness among U.S. companies of the shift in financing structure.

Asset Tokenization: The Next Technical Pillar of Dollar Hegemony

While raising funds on a massive scale, the U.S. is deploying blockchain technology as infrastructure to attract global capital, moving asset tokenization from concept to reality.

Asset tokenization refers to converting ownership of financial assets such as stocks, bonds, and real estate into digital tokens recorded on a blockchain. The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) currently has custody of about $115 trillion in U.S. assets and completed the tokenization of its first batch of assets for real transactions in July 2026, with 40 financial institutions participating, including tokenization testing of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and JPMorgan using tokenized assets to meet CME margin requirements. DTCC plans to officially launch tokenization services in October 2026.

On the regulatory front, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a "no-action" letter to DTCC in December 2025, confirming that the same security can be traded in parallel on both traditional and on-chain rails, with the same investor protections and ownership rights. A subsequent ruling in January 2026 further clarified that the issuance format or holding method of a security does not affect the application of federal securities laws. This provides ample regulatory endorsement for tokenization.

At the exchange level, the NYSE is collaborating with Securitize to develop a new digital platform aimed at achieving 24/7 trading, instant settlement, fractional share trading, and stablecoin settlement; Nasdaq announced the launch of an "equity token design," planning to achieve full tokenization capability by 2027, and has announced it will launch 23/5 trading by the end of 2025.

Deutsche Bank believes that the strategic significance of tokenization for the dollar lies in: on one hand, tokenized assets have higher collateral liquidity, which can improve capital efficiency and enhance the attractiveness of U.S. assets to global investors; on the other hand, if U.S. stocks and bonds achieve 24/7 instant settlement, it will significantly lower the entry barrier for global retail investors and further expand the demand base for dollar assets. The case of South Korea provides a reference—South Korea accounts for only 2% of global nominal GDP, yet contributed about 10% of the $740 billion in foreign capital that flowed into the U.S. stock market last year, partly because South Korea opened fractional trading of foreign stocks relatively early.

Currently, the global scale of tokenized real-world assets is about $40 billion, compared to the U.S.'s total assets of over $100 trillion, leaving vast room for growth. Market forecasts predict that by the 2030s, tokenized assets could reach $2 trillion to $30 trillion.

The Dollar's New Risk Map: From Safe-Haven Asset to AI Bet

This dual gamble of capital and technology is reshaping the dollar's risk profile.

Deutsche Bank points out that the U.S. is undergoing a fundamental shift in its financing structure: from official-sector-led, long-term, geopolitically driven capital inflows to private-sector-led, short-term, tech-return-driven capital inflows. This shift has significantly increased the dollar's correlation with the stock market, weakening its historical role as a hedge against equity risk.

This logic means that the dollar's fate is deeply tied to the outcome of the AI race. If AI capital expenditure ultimately proves to lack economic benefits, or if the U.S. loses its leading position in the technology competition, the withdrawal of large-scale private capital will deal a direct blow to the dollar.

At the same time, while tokenization lowers the barriers to capital inflows, it equally reduces the friction of capital outflows. Increased capital mobility is a double-edged sword—it can accelerate inflows in tailwinds and accelerate outflows in headwinds.

From a broader macro perspective, Deutsche Bank believes that the U.S. is participating in the AI race with an "open capital markets + closed technology" model: attracting global capital through full opening of capital markets, while keeping AI model weights closed to maintain corporate pricing power and shareholder returns. The core premise of this model is that U.S. AI companies can sustain technological leadership and convert it into sustainable profitability.

The Capitalist Model Itself Faces a Stress Test

Deutsche Bank raises a deeper proposition in the report: the AI race is not only a technological contest but also a contest of economic models, and America's shareholder capitalism model itself is facing a stress test.

The inherent logic of the U.S. model is: open capital markets attract global capital → massive capital investment drives technological innovation → technological leadership supports corporate pricing power → high profit returns attract more capital inflows. This virtuous cycle depends on AI companies being able to charge high subscription fees to global users and monetize intellectual property in international markets.

However, this cycle has obvious vulnerabilities. If the AI business model fails to generate sufficient economic returns, or if U.S. companies' pricing power is eroded, corporate profits will come under pressure, thereby shaking the core logic of attracting foreign capital and exacerbating already high fiscal deficit pressures.

Deutsche Bank also notes that AI revenue streams could improve the U.S. current account by about 1 percent of GDP over the next decade through increased service exports, but this prospect is highly dependent on whether U.S. AI companies can maintain pricing power and successfully monetize international user bases.

The report ultimately characterizes this race as the ultimate test of the core American belief that "free and open capital markets always produce the best innovation." The outcome of the AI race will, to a considerable extent, determine whether this belief still holds, and whether the dollar's status as the global capital hub can continue.