NIO Plunges as ES8 SUV Orders Shatter 2025 Production Capacity

NIO's stock tanks despite crushing demand—classic Wall Street logic.

Production Wall Smashed

ES8 reservations surge past what NIO's factories can pump out through next year. The electric vehicle maker faces the ultimate first-world problem: too many customers.

Manufacturing Gridlock

Assembly lines strain under unprecedented order volume. NIO scrambles to scale production while investors panic-sell over delivery timelines—proving traditional markets still can't process tech growth cycles.

When your product's too popular for its own good, maybe the problem isn't the company—it's the myopic financiers counting quarters instead of disruptions.

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The seven-seater SUV was launched on Saturday in Hangzhou. The ES8 is priced starting at 406,800 yuan (about $57,000), which is about 27% lower than the second-generation ES8 launch price. Also, Nio is offering a more affordable option of 298,800 yuan available through NIO’s battery-as-a-service rental program.

Demand Surges Past Expectations

Within just 36 hours of launch, NIO reportedly received up to 50,000 locked-in orders for the ES8, well above its stated production cap of 40,000 units for the year. Customers placing orders now are being told to expect delivery delays of 24 to 26 weeks, stretching into 2026.

CEO William Li noted that the ES8’s demand was better than expected. He added that production will ramp up to 15,000 units per month by December, but even that may not be enough to meet demand.

NIO said that all orders placed in 2025 will still qualify for current government tax incentives, even if delivery slips into next year. Also, if delays cause buyers to miss out on subsidies, the company will offer compensation.

Is NIO a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Overall, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on NIO stock, based on seven Buys, four Holds, and one Sell assigned in the last three months. The average Nio stock price target of $6.60 implies 4.9% downside risk from current levels.