3 Economic Shockwaves That Could Rock Your Portfolio: June 30 – July 4, 2025

Markets brace for impact as three major events threaten to rewrite the rules next week.

1. The Fed's Truth Bomb

Will Powell finally admit what we all know—that rate cuts are just Wall Street methadone?

2. Jobs Report Roulette

Another 'unexpected' employment swing could vaporize your crypto gains before brunch.

3. Independence Day Fireworks (For Your Portfolio)

Historical volatility shows July 4th week either moonshots assets or leaves them bleeding out.

Pro tip: Hedge with BTC—the only asset that thrives on chaos while traditional finance plays catch-up.

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Stocks hit these milestones thanks to strong investor enthusiasm for tech shares, particularly those in the AI sector, and rising hopes for a Fed rate cut later this year. The WHITE House’s announcement about signing a trade deal with China and the reveal of imminent plans to reach agreements with 10 major trading partners further jolted the markets. These developments overshadowed a dose of negativity from President Trump’s abrupt termination of trade talks with Canada over its proposed digital services tax.

Moreover, some good news also appeared on the macroeconomic front – particularly where it really matters for stocks – in forward-looking indicators. Although the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – Core PCE – showed that price increases accelerated in May, the June consumer sentiment index jumped to a four-month high, as inflation expectations of U.S. households significantly improved.

This mixed bag of data hasn’t simplified the Fed’s path to a rate-cut decision, with the governors seemingly in disagreement. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expects to see a pickup in inflation this summer and judged it best to continue with the “wait and see” approach. Conversely, his colleagues Michelle Bowman and Chris Waller said they now see the central bank cutting rates as soon as July. Despite the unexpected resilience, the economy continues to gradually decelerate, with expenditures displaying weakness and unemployment expected to increase.

U.S. stock markets will be closed on Friday, July 4, in observance of Independence Day.

Three Economic Events

Here are three key economic events that could affect your portfolio this week. For a full listing of additional economic reports, check out the TipRanks Economic Calendar.

– Tuesday, 07/01 – This report shows business conditions in the U.S. manufacturing sector and serves as a significant indicator of overall economic conditions. PMIs are considered one of the most reliable leading indicators for assessing the state of the U.S. economy, helping analysts and economists anticipate changing economic trends.

and– Thursday, 07/03 – The Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment reports represent the number of new jobs created during the previous month, along with the percentage of people actively seeking employment in the previous month. These reports are two of the most important economic indicators, as the shift in the number of positions is strongly associated with the overall health of the economy. One of the Federal Reserve’s mandates is full employment, and it considers labor market changes when determining its policy decisions.

– Thursday, 07/03 – This report reflects business conditions in the U.S. services sector, which contributes over 70% of the U.S. GDP. PMI indices are leading economic indicators used by economists and analysts to gain timely insights into changing economic conditions, as the direction and rate of change in the PMIs usually precede changes in the overall economy.