Oil Plunge: Israel-Iran War Premium Vanishes as Geopolitical Tensions Cool
Black gold's fear premium evaporates overnight.
Markets shrug off Middle East turmoil
Crude's brief war-driven rally collapsed faster than a meme coin in a bear market—proving once again that in finance, even apocalyptic scenarios get priced out before the bombs stop falling.
The cynical trade
Traders who bought the rumor are now selling the fact, leaving retail investors holding the bag as usual. The only thing more volatile than oil prices? Wall Street's attention span.
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Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran holds major influence over, continues to FLOW without disruptions. The passageway is a key shipping route for oil and other goods.
Strait of Hormuz Remains Open
A major concern of the Israel-Iran war was that Iran WOULD block or partially block the Strait, resulting in shipping disruptions and higher prices for oil. Experts had argued that Iran would likely leave the Strait open given that a large portion of its government revenues stems from oil exports.
Now, Wall Street expects oil prices to remain in their current range or fall lower as long as the Israel-Iran ceasefire holds and the Strait operates accordingly.
Crude light oil futures have shed 8% year-to-date.
