Carnival (CCL) Rockets 7% on Q2 Smash, Upgraded Guidance, and That Elusive ’Perfect 10’ Smart Score
Carnival stock just pulled off the trifecta—beating estimates, hiking forecasts, and scoring Wall Street's golden ticket. Here's why traders are rushing the gangway.
The numbers don't lie (for once)
CCL surged 7% after delivering a clean Q2 beat—proving even cruise ships can outrun bearish analysts when the winds are right. The upgraded guidance suggests smoother sailing ahead, though we've heard that one before.
That magic '10' changes everything
The 'Perfect 10' Smart Score—Wall Street's equivalent of a participation trophy—gave algos the green light to pile in. Never mind that half these models still think Terra Luna is a comeback story waiting to happen.
Bottom line: Another victory lap for the 'reopening trade' narrative. Just don't ask what happens when the next norovirus outbreak meets leveraged retail positions.
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Q2 Highlights
CCL reported Q2 revenue of $6.33 billion, beating Wall Street estimates of $6.21 billion and rising nearly 10% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.35, topping the $0.24 consensus and delivering a 45.83% upside surprise. Net income rose to $565 million, an improvement of nearly $475 million from the same quarter last year, while adjusted EBITDA grew 26% to $1.5 billion. Operating margin climbed to 14.8%, up from 9.7% in Q2 2024, and free cash FLOW margin reached 51.2%.
Carnival attributed the strong results to firm close-in demand, higher ticket pricing, and increased onboard spending. Passenger cruise days ROSE to 25.3 million, up 1 million year-over-year. The company also posted record net yields, up 6.4% in constant currency, while cutting cruise costs per available lower berth day by 0.3% and fuel usage by more than 6%.
The cruise operator exceeded its 2026 SEA Change financial targets 18 months early, delivering a 52% increase in trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA per available lower berth day and boosting return on invested capital above 12.5%. Total customer deposits hit an all-time high of $8.5 billion, and booking trends for 2026 are already in line with 2025’s record levels.
CCL’s Guidance
Looking ahead, Carnival expects full-year adjusted net income to rise more than 40% from 2024, with net yields projected to increase 5% in constant currency. Adjusted EBITDA for the year is forecasted at $6.9 billion, up over 10% year over year. The company also strengthened its liquidity position by expanding its revolving credit facility to $4.5 billion and refinancing higher-interest debt, moves that support its investment-grade leverage goals.
On TipRanks, CCL earns a “Perfect 10” Smart Score, signaling strong potential to outperform the market. The score reflects bullish sentiment from analysts and bloggers, increased hedge fund holdings, and strong technical indicators. Return on equity sits at 25.87%, while momentum is up 49.59% over the past 12 months. Despite modest insider selling and neutral news flow, the stock’s outlook remains broadly positive based on its current trajectory.
