Citi Analyst Predicts 50% Rocket Ride for Alibaba (BABA) - Here’s Why

Wall Street's getting bullish on China's e-commerce giant—but is this optimism misplaced?

Citi just slapped a 50% upside target on Alibaba (BABA), sending traders scrambling. The analyst call cites undervaluation and cloud potential... because apparently we're still pretending cloud revenues matter in 2025.

Key drivers behind the upgrade:

- Structural reforms finally bearing fruit

- Ant Group shadow lifting

- That sweet, sweet 'oversold' technical setup

Of course, nobody mentioned the elephant in the room: another CCP regulatory surprise could vaporize those gains faster than a meme coin crash. But hey—when has China risk ever stopped greedy analysts?

One thing's certain: if this prediction hits, it'll be the first time a bank's price target wasn't immediately followed by a 10% drop.

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What Drove the Strong Performance?

Tmall President Liu Bo said net GMV on Tmall ROSE 10% year-over-year during the festival, marking the strongest growth in the past three years. This figure, which excludes returns and refunds, reflects real merchant earnings and is a key metric for Alibaba’s commerce business. It’s important to highlight that Tmall is Alibaba’s e-commerce platform for established brands.

Liu pointed to China’s national trade-in subsidy program as a major growth driver, noting that sales of subsidy-related products surged 115% versus last year’s 11.11 event. He also noted that direct price cuts, offering an instant 10% off, improved the user experience and reduced return rates.

Importantly, Liu emphasized that the focus this year was on “high-quality growth” over volume. He said Alibaba will continue supporting strong brands and merchants, and apply this strategy in upcoming sales events like Double 11, also known as Singles’ Day, that takes place every year on November 11 (11/11).

Yap’s Take on Alibaba

Following Liu’s comments, Yap said the event was a positive sign for Alibaba’s near-term growth. She believes the strong 6.18 results, combined with solid retail trends in April and May, could push CORE marketing revenue growth in Q1 FY26 above current expectations.

She also pointed to promising signs from “Taobao Quick Commerce,” which has started to deliver positive results and could offer incremental growth opportunities across categories over time.

Meanwhile, Yap noted that AliExpress also gained traction during the 6.18 event. According to Sina News, more than 200,000 users joined Pop Mart’s Labubu livestream, with several items selling out instantly in overseas markets like the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. This reflects Alibaba’s expanding global reach. Notably, AliExpress is Alibaba’s global e-commerce arm focused on cross-border retail.

Is Alibaba Stock a Good Buy Right Now?

Analysts remain highly bullish about Alibaba’s stock trajectory. With 12 unanimous Buy ratings, BABA stock commands a Strong Buy consensus rating on TipRanks. Also, the average Alibaba price target of $166 implies about 47% upside potential from current levels.