SPY & QQQ Surge as Iran’s Tepid Response Fuels Rally—July Rate Cut Bets Soar

Markets breathe easy as geopolitical tensions ease—traders pile into risk assets.

SPY and QQQ catch bids after Iran's muted retaliation defuses escalation fears. The 'buy everything' trade is back—for now.

Rate cut fever returns. Fed funds futures now price 72% odds of a July cut as weak retaliation = weak inflation pressure (or so the algo logic goes).

Classic Wall Street: interpreting absence of war as bullish. Meanwhile, retail traders FOMO into calls while institutions quietly hedge. Same playbook, different crisis.

Next catalyst? Probably some Fed speaker walking back the euphoria. Enjoy the rally while it lasts—volatility's just taking a coffee break.

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Despite Iran’s retaliation, the market remained strong while oil prices dropped. That’s because the attack resulted in zero casualties and didn’t disrupt any oil infrastructure or supply chain locations. In addition, Qatar was able to intercept all of the missiles and was informed by Iran of the strikes before they actually occurred. As a result, it appears that Iran’s retaliation was more symbolic than aggressive, signaling that the country is closer to taking a seat at the negotiation table. President TRUMP called the move “a very weak response.”

“The base that was targeted in the attack by the powerful Iranian forces was far from urban facilities and residential areas in Qatar,” said Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

However, oil prices still remain elevated compared to the start of the war on June 13. “To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!” said Trump in a Truth Social post this morning, encouraging domestic oil production.

Meanwhile, Americans have expressed their discomfort with the war by dropping President Trump’s approval rating to 41%, a term-low and down from 47% in January. The poll, conducted by Reuters and research firm Ipsos, showed that 84% of respondents were concerned about the war while 79% were worried that Americans could be attacked following the U.S. missile attack on Iran.

In interest rate news, a second Fed member has voiced support for a July rate cut, sending the odds of a 25 basis points reduction to 22.7% compared to 14.5% yesterday on CME’s FedWatch tool. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that she WOULD support lowering rates as soon as July if inflation remains low. Last week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the central bank is in a good position to cut rates as early as July.

The S&P 500 finished with a 0.96% gain while the Nasdaq 100 returned 1.06%.