🚨 Recession Alarm: Leading Economic Index Flashes Red in 2025

The canary in the coal mine just dropped dead—economic storm clouds are gathering.

Why Traders Are Eyeing the Exits

The LEI's nosedive isn't just a blip—it's the kind of signal that makes hedge fund managers reach for the panic button. Six straight months of decline? That's not a correction, it's a cliff.

Crypto's Recession Paradox

While traditional markets brace for impact, Bitcoin maximalists are licking their chops. Nothing fuels decentralized demand like central bank incompetence—just ask anyone who survived 2022.

The Silver Lining Playbook

History shows crypto winters thaw into bull runs. When the Fed inevitably pivots, guess where the liquidity tsunami lands first? (Hint: not your 401k).

Memo to Wall Street: Your 'risk-off' indicators are our buy signals. The harder they fight inflation, the harder Bitcoin fights back.

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Through the six months ended May, the LEI has now declined by 2.7%, triggering a recession signal in the process. The signal is triggered when the LEI’s annualized six-month growth rate drops below 4.1% and when the six-month diffusion index reaches or drops below 50. The diffusion index tracks the extent of decline within the LEI’s components.

The Conference Board Eases Recession Fears

Despite the signal, the Board doesn’t forecast a recession. However, the research firm expects “a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6% this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026.”

The Board added that weakness in the labor and housing markets, as well as consumer pessimism, has contributed to the index’s weak six-month performance.

Another recession indicator to keep in mind is two negative quarters of gross domestic product (GDP) growth. GDP fell at an annualized rate of 0.2% in Q1.

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