Nvidia’s $500B Order Tsunami Sets Stage for Make-or-Break Q3 Earnings Showdown
All eyes on Jensen Huang as Nvidia's monster backlog tests Wall Street's AI hype tolerance.
The chipmaker's $500 billion pipeline—equal to 2x Bitcoin's market cap—could either turbocharge the tech rally or expose it as another vaporware bubble.
Analysts whisper about 'irrational exuberance' while quietly raising price targets. Classic Wall Street schizophrenia.
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As a result, analysts say the orders point to a stronger path for 2026 than earlier forecasts showed. Wolfe Research top analyst Chris Caso wrote that the new detail signals “clear upside to current consensus estimates.” He added that data center revenue for 2026 could be about $60 billion higher than prior views. Even so, Nvidia shares trade about 5% under the level seen when Huang made the remark.
Meanwhile, NVDA shares ROSE 1.77% on Friday to close at $190.17.
What to Watch in the Report
Now the focus turns to the near term. FactSet (FDS) sees $1.25 in earnings per share on $54.83 billion in sales for the October quarter. Analysts also look for guidance of $61.88 billion for the January quarter, and that WOULD mark a pickup in growth. Nvidia provides guidance only one quarter at a time, so investors will closely track any notes Huang gives on future orders and demand plans.
In the prior earnings season, Google (GOOGL) (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META) each stated they will increase capital outlay for AI needs. Oppenheimer’s top analyst Rick Schafer wrote that the trend reflects an “insatiable AI appetite.”
During the quarter, Nvidia also struck several sizable deals. The company plans to invest up to $10 billion in OpenAIequity in return for OpenAI buying between four million and five million chips over time. Nvidia also agreed to invest $5 billion in Intel (INTC) to help both firms LINK Intel chips with Nvidia chips in a smoother way. In addition, Nvidia took a $1 billion stake in Nokia (NOK) to work on the use of its chips in network gear. Citi’s top analyst, Atif Malik, wrote that the OpenAI deal will likely draw the most focus from investors on Wednesday.
China Uncertainty Shape the Broader Outlook
Meanwhile, the field of custom chips is growing. Amazon, Google, and OpenAI all plan to use more in-house chip designs. Yet analysts say Nvidia still holds over 90% of the market for AI chips, and they expect Huang to provide fresh views on how he sees the shift.
China also sits in the background. The company had limits on its H20 chip earlier in the year, and while Nvidia now has a license to sell chips to China, it has not shared plans for a new model to follow the H20. Schafer said he sees China as a possible $50 billion annual opportunity for Nvidia in the future. When asked in late October if he aims to sell Blackwell chips to China, Huang said, “I hope so. But that is a decision for President TRUMP to make.”
Is Nvidia Stock a Buy?
Nvidia continues to hold the Street’s endorsement with a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average NVDA price target is $242, implying a 27.25% upside from the current price.
