D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Stock Primed for 74% Surge – Analyst Bull Case Ignites
Quantum computing's dark horse just got a Wall Street adrenaline shot.
D-Wave's QBTS stock—often dismissed as speculative vaporware—now has analysts betting big on a near-term breakout. The 74% upside projection isn't just hopium; it's a calculated gamble on quantum's enterprise adoption curve.
Why the sudden optimism? Institutional money's sniffing around quantum annealing like it's 2021 crypto all over again. Never mind that most investors couldn't explain qubits if their bonus checks depended on it.
The real play? QBTS might be the only quantum stock not priced like it already solved protein folding. Just don't ask what happens if the 'quantum winter' comes early.
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But those gains have also exposed just how sensitive sentiment around the name remains, with shares now sitting 47% below their mid-October peak. With that push-and-pull in play, investors were watching closely as the company entered its Q3 earnings earlier this month.
And the results were mostly positive. Revenue doubled year-over-year to $3.74 million, beating consensus by $0.71 million, while adjusted EPS of -$0.05 came in $0.02 ahead of expectations. Bookings also showed progress, rising 4% from a year ago to $2.4 million and nearly doubling from the $1.3 million reported in 2Q25.
Canaccord analyst Kingsley Crane thinks the bookings metric tells a lot about where the company is heading. “We view bookings as the best indicator of the health of the business, so we’re encouraged to see that figure up qoq and yoy in Q3,” the analyst opined.”
Looking ahead to Q4, Crane argues that last year’s $18.3 million in bookings creates a “tough comp.” Although he expects the 10-million-euro Q-Alliance deal to land in this quarter’s tally, surpassing last year’s level will likely require another sizable agreement to close. Still, as Crane notes, “the pipeline is stronger than ever, and while it’s still early, FY26 is shaping up to be a landmark bookings year for the company.”
Crane notes that system sales are becoming increasingly critical to short-term performance. Management has consistently suggested about one sale per year, though, “reading between the tea leaves,” this seems to be moving closer to two. Even at one sale annually, ASPs are rising with Advantage2 GA, and QCaaS should keep ramping. Crane expects System sale ASPs of $20–$40 million, with commercial customers NEAR the top end. Therefore, the analyst’s FY26 estimate of $23 million appears conservative, reflecting the lower end of both frequency and ASP.
So, after a four-figure rally, is QBTS still a Buy? Crane acknowledges the valuation is no longer for the faint of heart, but even so, he believes the story hasn’t run its course, and that additional upside remains in play.
“We’ll make no bones about it – with shares trading upwards of 200x CY26 sales, this has clearly become a long-term concept stock and investors should accept that near-term volatility comes with the territory,” Crane explained. “That said, our long-term scenario analysis shows a pathway for further upside from these levels.”
Accordingly, Crane assigns QBTS shares a Buy rating, while raising his price target from $20 to $41, suggesting the stock will gain ~74% in the 12 months ahead. (To watch Crane’s track record, click here)
There’s no disagreement elsewhere on the Street. Based on a unanimous 11 Buys, QBTS naturally claims a Strong Buy consensus rating. The $39.09 average price target makes room for ~66% over the one-year timeframe. (See)
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