Target’s Q3 Earnings Loom: Options Traders Bet on a Wild 9.96% Swing in TGT Stock
Brace for impact—Target’s Q3 earnings drop this week, and the options market’s pricing in fireworks. A near-10% move? That’s not just noise; it’s a full-blown trader tantrum.
Why the volatility feast? Blame retail’s favorite pastime: overreacting to quarterly scribbles. Target’s either about to be a hero or a cautionary tale—no in-between.
Wall Street’s playing both sides, as usual. Calls and stacks are piled high, because why pick a direction when you can profit from panic? Classic hedge fund alchemy—turning shopper sentiment into gold.
One thing’s certain: someone’s getting rich on TGT’s rollercoaster. Spoiler—it’s not the retail bagholders.
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Wall Street expects Target’s Q3 FY25 revenue to decline 1.3% year-over-year to $25.34 billion. Moreover, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to fall 7.6% to $1.71 due to lower sales and margin contraction.
Analysts’ Views Ahead of Target’s Q3 Earnings
Heading into Q3 earnings, Telsey analyst Joseph Feldman reiterated a Hold rating on Target stock with a price target of $110 based on a P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple of about 14x his new 2026 EPS estimate of $8.12. The 5-star analyst continues to expect Target to report “soft” performance in Q3 FY25, reporting comparable sales growth of -1.5% in line with the Street’s expectations. He expects TGT to report an EPS decline of 5% to $1.76 compared to the Street’s estimate of $1.72. Feldman’s estimates are based on cautious consumer spending on discretionary goods, higher costs, and tariff woes, partially offset by easier comparisons with the prior-year quarter that was hit by elevated digital fulfillment and supply chain costs.
The analyst remains concerned that Target is losing customers and market share to retailers like Amazon (AMZN), Costco (COST), and Walmart (WMT). Feldman noted that Target is trying to improve its business by focusing on offering value deals, enhancing customer loyalty, and implementing strategic initiatives related to private brands, new stores, remodels, Target+ marketplace, and more. The analyst also noted TGT’s streamlining measures under CEO-elect Michael Fiddelke, which he believes are “the right steps to revive the business, although it may require patience to see results.”
Meanwhile, UBS analyst Michael Lasser reiterated a Buy rating on TGT stock with a price target of $130. The 5-star analyst believes that Target’s Q3 results are “unlikely to materially shift the ongoing investment debate around the retailer.” Lasser noted that Target hasn’t performed as hoped in recent years. Still, the analyst contends that at current levels, there’s more upside potential to TGT stock than downside risk. Lasser believes that the upcoming months and quarters will be crucial for the retailer. He added that while the leadership transition already faced some challenges, it won’t matter if Target can improve execution and deliver more consistent results.
AI Analyst Is Bullish on TGT Stock Ahead of Q3 Print
Interestingly, TipRanks’ AI Analyst has assigned an Outperform rating to Target stock with a price target of $102, indicating about 13.5% upside potential. The AI analyst’s rating for Target reflects its financial performance (the retailer delivered better-than-expected Q2 earnings) and attractive valuation, offset by mixed technical indicators. However, challenges in top-line growth and longer-term bearish technical trends present risks. The AI Analyst also noted TGT’s high dividend yield.
Is TGT Stock a Good Buy Now?
Amid the ongoing headwinds, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on Target stock based on 13 Holds, eight Buys, and four Sell recommendations. The average TGT stock price target of $102.41 indicates 14% upside potential from current levels.
