BigBear.ai (BBAI) Q2 Earnings Drop In 3 Days – Here’s What Wall Street Isn’t Telling You
BigBear.ai's November 10 earnings call could be a make-or-break moment for the AI stock. With analysts split between bullish tech narratives and bearish cash flow realities, here's what really matters.
The AI Hype vs. Hardware Reality
Will BBAI's defense sector contracts offset its notorious cash burn? Recent DoD partnerships suggest upside—if they can convert prototypes into recurring revenue.
Whisper Numbers vs. Street Estimates
Insiders hint at surprise profitability in one vertical, while short sellers circle over $147M in convertible debt coming due. Classic 'story stock' volatility ahead.
The Crypto Angle You Didn't Expect
Rumors persist about blockchain integration for supply chain AI—because apparently every tech company needs a Web3 PowerPoint slide these days.
One thing's certain: this earnings call will separate the AI believers from the 'show me the money' crowd. Just remember—in tech earnings season, sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make. (Looking at you, Cathie Wood.)
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A.I. Analyst Cuts Price Target Ahead of Q3
Ahead of the results, TipRanks’ AI Analyst Mira Patchera (under the GPT-4o model) lowered the price target on BigBear.ai to $6 from $6.50, while keeping a Hold rating. The new target suggests about 6% upside from current levels. Patchera explained that the AI analysis shows weak financial trends, including lower revenue and ongoing cash losses. Revenue has dropped due to contract delays, which raises concerns about steady income and future profits. The company’s negative adjusted EBITDA also highlights continued cost pressure and slow movement toward profitability.
Notably, in the previous quarter, BigBear.ai reported Q2 revenue of $32.5 million, missing the Street’s estimate of $40.59 million. It also posted an adjusted loss of $0.71 per share, wider than the expected $0.06 loss.
Even so, Patchera pointed out that BigBear.ai’s strong cash balance—about $390.8 million at the end of Q2—offers the company room to fund growth plans and manage its debt. She also noted that global partnerships are expanding, helping bring in new regional revenue and supporting the company’s broader growth outlook.
Options Traders Anticipate a Large Move
Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings MOVE is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry; the Options tool does this for you.
Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting an 16.96% move in either direction.
Is BBAI Stock a Good Buy?
Overall, BigBear.ai Holdings stock scores a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on two Buy and one Hold recommendations. The average BBAI stock price target of $5.83 indicates an upside risk of 3%.
