🚀 July 30, 2025: Refinance Rates Heatmap – Which States Are Bleeding or Winning?

Mortgage lenders play musical chairs—rates swing wildly by ZIP code while Wall Street bets against homeowners.

The Great Refinance Lottery

Golden State borrowers catch a break as Texas gets squeezed—no one said federal monetary policy was fair.

Bankers’ Favorite Game

‘Risk-adjusted pricing’ translates to ‘how much can we charge before they riot’—spoiler: the answer is ‘more’.

Fun fact: Your APR now changes faster than a crypto meme coin. Thanks, ‘efficient markets’.

National Refinance Rates Drop to End 4-Day Gain

Rates on 30-year refinance mortgages dropped 5 basis points Tuesday after rising for four days, now averaging 7.01%. That's NEAR the 6.95% reading from the start of July, which was the lowest reading in three months and is also notably cheaper than May’s 10-month high of 7.32%.

But refinancing was more affordable for homeowners in March, when rates plunged to a 2025 low of 6.71%. And last September, 30-year refi rates sank to a two-year low of 6.01%.

Beware of Teaser Rates

The rates we publish are averages and won't directly compare to the teaser rates often advertised online. Those rates are typically cherry-picked to be the most attractive and may involve paying points upfront or be based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or a smaller-than-typical loan. The rate you actually secure will depend on factors such as your credit score, income, and more, so it may differ from the averages you see here.

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are influenced by a mix of macroeconomic factors and industry dynamics, including:

• The level and direction of the bond market, particularly 10-year Treasury yields
• The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, especially regarding bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
• Competition among mortgage lenders and across different loan types

These factors can all fluctuate simultaneously, making it difficult to pinpoint the exact cause of rate changes.

In 2021, macroeconomic conditions kept mortgage rates relatively low, with the Federal Reserve buying billions of dollars in bonds to counteract the pandemic's economic effects. This bond-buying policy was a key driver of mortgage rates during that time.

However, starting in November 2021, the Fed began reducing its bond purchases, tapering down until reaching zero in March 2022. Then, from 2022 to 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to combat decades-high inflation.

While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it doesn't do so directly. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can sometimes move in opposite directions. But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed's 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—mortgage rates surged during this period, reflecting the Ripple effects of the Fed's dramatic campaign.

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at its peak level for almost 14 months, beginning in July 2023. But last September, the central bank announced a first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, and then followed that with quarter-point reductions in November and December.

So far this year, the Fed has held rates steady through five meetings, with a first 2025 reduction not expected until September at the earliest. The Fed's quarterly forecast released in mid-June indicated a median prediction of two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year, with the Fed's next quarterly forecast scheduled for Sept. 17.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.