Refinance Rates Finally Drop – Relief After 4 Days of Pain (July 30, 2025)

Borrowers catch a break as refinance rates reverse course.

After climbing relentlessly for four straight days, rates took a surprise dip—just in time for everyone to question whether it’s a trend or another cruel tease from the mortgage gods.

Why the sudden shift? Who knows. Maybe the Fed blinked. Maybe the algorithms got bored. Or maybe it’s just Wall Street’s way of keeping homeowners perpetually on edge.

One thing’s certain: Banks won’t let a little rate drop eat into their profits. Those ‘processing fees’ aren’t going anywhere.

Important

The rates we publish are averages and won't directly compare to the teaser rates often advertised online. Those rates are typically cherry-picked to be the most attractive and may involve paying points upfront or be based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or a smaller-than-typical loan. The rate you actually secure will depend on factors like your credit score, income, and more, so it may differ from the averages you see here.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it's always wise to shop around for your best mortgage refinance option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are influenced by a mix of macroeconomic factors and industry dynamics, including:

• The level and direction of the bond market, particularly 10-year Treasury yields
• The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, especially regarding bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
• Competition among mortgage lenders and across different loan types

These factors can all fluctuate simultaneously, making it difficult to pinpoint the exact cause of rate changes.

In 2021, macroeconomic conditions kept mortgage rates relatively low, with the Federal Reserve buying billions of dollars in bonds to counteract the pandemic's economic effects. This bond-buying policy was a key driver of mortgage rates during that time.

However, starting in November 2021, the Fed began reducing its bond purchases, tapering down until reaching zero in March 2022. Then, from 2022 to 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to combat decades-high inflation.

While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it doesn't do so directly. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can sometimes move in opposite directions. But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed's 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—mortgage rates surged during this period, reflecting the Ripple effects of the Fed's dramatic campaign.

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at its peak level for almost 14 months, beginning in July 2023. But last September, the central bank announced a first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, and then followed that with quarter-point reductions in November and December.

So far this year, the Fed has held rates steady through five meetings, with a first 2025 reduction not expected until September at the earliest. The Fed's quarterly forecast released in mid-June indicated a median prediction of two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year, with the Fed's next quarterly forecast scheduled for Sept. 17.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.