Intel Earnings This Week: Here’s How Much Traders Expect the Stock to Move

Intel's quarterly report drops this week—and the options market is already placing its bets.

The Volatility Playbook

Traders aren't just guessing. They're pricing in a specific expected move, a number derived from the premium baked into short-term options contracts. It's the market's collective estimate of the post-earnings shockwave, up or down.

Forget the analyst whispers and the CEO's prepared remarks. This figure cuts through the noise, showing you what the people risking real capital actually believe. It's the cold, hard probability implied by price.

Why This Number Matters More Than Guidance

Earnings season is a ritual of managed expectations—beat the lowered bar, tout the long-term vision, watch the stock pop. But the expected move bypasses the spin. It gives you the playing field's boundaries before the game even starts, defining the range of probable outcomes priced in by the smartest, and often most cynical, money in the room.

It's the ultimate reality check before the headlines drop.

So, as Intel steps into the spotlight, remember: the real story isn't just in the earnings per share. It's in the silent, multi-million dollar wager placed by the market itself. Sometimes, the most honest commentary in finance comes from a derivatives pricing model, not a CFO. Place your bets accordingly.

Key Takeaways

• Intel is slated to post fourth-quarter results after the closing bell on Thursday.
• Options pricing suggesting traders expect the stock could move up to 8% in either direction by the end of the week.

Intel is set to report fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes on Thursday, with traders anticipating a big MOVE from the chipmaker's stock following the results.

Options pricing suggests traders expect Intel (INTC) stock could move up to 8% in either direction by the end of the week. At the high end, a move of that size from Tuesday's close NEAR $49 could push the stock up to $52, its highest point since early 2022. At the low end, the stock could drop to around $44, about where it was early last week, before an upgrade by KeyBanc analysts sent the stock higher.

Intel's stock is up some 27% since the struggling chipmaker last reported earnings in October, with results that came in stronger than analysts expected. Rumors about potential new customers, along with a show of support from the Trump administration after the U.S. government took a big stake in August, have also boosted Optimism about the chipmaker's stock.

Why This Matters to Investors

Though Intel's stock remains well off its 2021 highs, the shares have had a strong run in recent months after a string of positive news. A strong showing Thursday could help convince more investors of its turnaround, amid lingering uncertainty about its business.

Intel is expected to report revenue of $13.4 billion in the quarter, down about 6% year-over-year, while adjusted earnings per share are forecast to fall to 8 cents from 13 cents a year ago, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

Last week, KeyBanc analysts upgraded the stock to "buy" from a neutral rating, pointing to signs of better-than-expected AI demand. However, most Wall Street analysts are more cautious. Of the eight analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha, KeyBanc is the only firm recommending buying the stock, compared to one "sell" and six "hold" ratings.

Wedbush analysts, who maintained a neutral rating heading into the results, told clients Tuesday that they think Intel's recent headlines have had "seemingly disproportionate impacts on the stock," and that they still have concerns about competition and a potential decline in PC demand as a memory shortage raises prices.

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The mean price target of analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha around $45 WOULD imply roughly 7% downside from the stock's close Tuesday.