Wall Street Finally Wakes Up to Tesla’s Rally as Delivery Data Looms

Analysts scramble to adjust targets as Tesla's stock surge outpaces traditional forecasts.

The Reality Check

Wall Street's crystal balls look foggy as Tesla shares defy conservative projections yet again. With delivery figures imminent, financial institutions play catch-up with a market that's already priced in the momentum.

Delivery Day Drama

All eyes turn to Tesla's quarterly numbers—the actual performance metric that cuts through analyst speculation. The electric vehicle pioneer continues to bypass conventional automotive metrics, trading more like tech stock than car manufacturer.

Street Versus Speed

Traditional valuation models struggle to capture Tesla's vertical integration advantage and software-driven revenue streams. While analysts debate price targets, retail investors keep charging ahead—proving once more that Wall Street's fax machine mentality can't keep up with real-time market movements.

Nothing focuses financial minds quite like missing a 20% rally. Maybe next quarter they'll check the stock price before writing their reports.

Key Takeaways

• Big-picture optimism regarding Elon Musk's commitment, AI and robotaxis has helped pull shares of Tesla higher this month. That also has several Wall Street analysts playing catch-up with their price targets.
• Some investors, however, may return their attention to the company's EV business next week, when third-quarter deliveries figures are expected to land.

Wall Street analysts have largely been behind as Tesla's stock has raced higher. They're starting to catch up.

The EV maker's shares have been hot lately, rising some 27% this month alone through Thursday's close around $423. (They're up about 2% in Friday trading; read Investopedia's full coverage of today's action here.) The Street's mean price target, however, is substantially lower, according to Visible Alpha data, recently hanging out around $340—a level the stock hasn't closed below since early this month.

The analyst average, however, got a bump today. Wedbush lifted its price target to $600 from $500. "An accelerated AI path for the company is now on the horizon and investors are underestimating the transformation underway at the company," its analysts wrote. CEO Elon Musk, they said, "is now driving Tesla into its next stage of growth."

Why This Matters to Tesla Investors

Shares of Tesla have added more than a quarter of their value in September, with the bull case largely shifting from sales of electric vehicles to Elon Musk's compensation package, robotaxis and AI. That may mean investors are less focused on the quarterly vehicle deliveries figures expected next month, a precursor to Tesla's earnings report. Those numbers, however, can still drive moves in and sentiment about the shares.

Deutsche Bank, meanwhile, lifted its price target to $435 from $345 while maintaining a bullish rating. Some of the bank's reasoning was based on Optimism regarding third-quarter deliveries figures, which are expected next week: Deutsche Bank expects the company to report a number north of 461,000, higher than the Visible Alpha analysts' average.

But more of their outlook also goes further than vehicle sales, echoing themes Tesla bulls at Wedbush and elsewhere have voiced in recent weeks regarding the company's burgeoning business lines and a financial commitment to (and from) CEO Elon Musk. Other analysts have also recently lifted their targets—among them those at Baird, who on Sept. 19 set a $548 target.

"We think Elon Musk’s clear focus on Tesla’s most important efforts (robotaxi and Optimus) and the recent compensation package have removed a large overhang on the stock and going forward, will allow Tesla to benefit from being a leader in embodied AI," Deutsche Bank wrote.

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