Bitcoin and Ethereum Brace for June’s Historical Slump – But Don’t Count the Bulls Out Yet

Crypto markets face their annual June reckoning—BTC and ETH are no strangers to summer sell-offs. Yet this time, the bulls might just have enough momentum to flip the script.

Seasonal trends scream caution, but on-chain data and institutional inflows hint at an undercurrent of strength. The real question: Will Wall Street’s 'smart money' panic-sell like retail traders at the first dip? (Spoiler: They always do.)

Keep an eye on those support levels—because in crypto, even the bears wear bull masks eventually.

Technical & Seasonal Snapshot

June’s lackluster seasonality is well-documented: BTC returns are typically subdued or negative, and it fell 7.1% last year. This June, BTC has eased from ~ $105K to $103K range amid macro jitters. Key resistance sits between $105K–$106K—holding above this might shift momentum upward, while a dip below $100K could trigger deeper weakness.

Ethereum is carving a classic bull‑flag on daily charts—an early bullish setup—with short-term range between $2,360 and $2,670. A breakout above $3,000 (with volume) could signal a climb toward $3,200–$3,500, but if $2,600 doesn’t hold, downside risk stretches to $2,300 or lower.

Fundamentals & Flows

Institutional flows diverge: Bitcoin spot‑ETF outflows totaled $278M on June 5, ending a six‑week inflow streak. Yet, despite redemptions, year‑to‑date ETF investments still exceed $9B 

Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs continue to see strong inflows—$78M over 12 straight days—suggesting sustained institutional appetite.

Upcoming U.S. labor data and any Fed commentary will be key to watching macro drivers that often MOVE crypto—especially in a seasonally weak month.

Outlook & Forecasts

Bitcoin bullish case: Holding $105K–$106K could pave the way for re-tests of all-time highs (~$112K) and even stretch toward $115K by early July, supported by renewed ETF flows and looming catalysts.

Ethereum upside: A confirmed break above $3,000 could send ETH toward $3,200–$3,500; the bull‑flag pattern and strong ETF flows reinforce that path. Altcoin rotation may also amplify upside if BTC leads.

Conclusion

June’s typical weakness looms, but bullish seasonality may be defied if key levels hold and macro catalysts like jobs data or Fed signals spark renewed interest. 

Watch for resistance at $106K for BTC and the crucial $3,000 mark for Ethereum—these levels could determine whether bulls overcome the seasonal winds.

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