Why Upstart Stock Is Rallying Hard Today: 3 Key Drivers

Upstart's AI-powered lending platform just flipped traditional credit models on their head—and investors are taking notice.

The stock surged double-digits as the company's algorithm-driven approach continues gaining traction over outdated FICO systems.

Three catalysts fueled today's move: expanded banking partnerships, lower default rates than traditional models, and shorts getting squeezed into oblivion.

Wall Street analysts—who've been wrong about this stock more times than they'd admit—are now scrambling to upgrade price targets.

Turns out machines might actually be better at assessing risk than bankers who still use fax machines.

Powell sees "balanced" risks, pointing to potential cuts

The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate, which includes stable prices and full employment. After the pandemic, inflation surged, and the Fed tightened by raising the federal funds rate at the fastest pace in history. While the Fed began easing last year, the central bank has held the FFR at 4.5% since December.

Rate hikes were a disaster for Upstart, which saw its third-party loan buyers flee from its platform. As a result, Upstart's revenue growth reversed to declines, and the company even resorted to holding some loans on its balance sheet, outside its preferred business model.

But in a highly publicized speech today at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chair Jay Powell said, "The baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance." In other words, a slowing job market means the Fed is as worried about jobs as it is about inflation today. The result could be more interest rate cuts soon.

In a vacuum, rate cuts are good for Upstart, as it lowers the cost of capital for Upstart's loan buyers and generally increases "risk appetite." That usually means more demand for Upstart's high-rate personal loans, so it's no surprise to see Upstart and many fintech stocks rallying big today.

Image source: Getty Images.

But the speech wasn't an "all-clear"

As I said, rate cuts in a vacuum are good for Upstart. However, if rate cuts are necessary due to job losses, that could affect borrowers' ability to pay back loans and the risk appetite of Upstart's loan buyers. Meanwhile, inflation still remains above the Fed's 2% target, so any acceleration in inflation data in the months ahead could nix any rate cut plans.

In short, while rate cuts WOULD be nice, investors shouldn't get carried away by today's jump. Risks to both the economy and inflation remain.