Tesla’s $1T Gamble: How Robotaxis and Optimus Will Dominate the Next Decade

Tesla’s betting big—again. This time, it’s not just about EVs. Robotaxis and Optimus bots are Musk’s moonshots to turn the company into a trillion-dollar automation empire. Wall Street’s either salivating or sweating, depending on how much Kool-Aid they’ve drunk.

Robotaxis: The Road to Autonomy (or Chaos)

Elon’s vision? A fleet of driverless Teslas hustling 24/7, slashing Uber’s margins and rewriting urban transit. Regulators? Still stuck at stop signs. If the tech delivers, it’s a license to print money. If not, it’s another ‘full self-driving’ promise collecting dust.

Optimus: More Than a Fancy Roomba

The humanoid bot’s gone from dancing meme to legit assembly-line contender. Tesla’s betting factories will trade human hands for Optimus’s wrench-twisting—cutting labor costs and union headaches. Skeptics say it’s sci-fi; bulls say it’s the next iPhone moment.

The Bottom Line

Tesla’s playing two high-stakes hands. Nail both, and it’s the Apple of automation. Fumble? Hello, ‘growth stock’ purgatory. Either way, shorts will need Xanax.

Image source: Getty Images.

The robotaxi opportunity

Tesla has promised that once its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology reaches true autonomy, it will launch a fleet of robotaxis -- either operated by Tesla itself or run by owners on a ride-hailing network. The appeal is obvious: eliminate the human driver, and the economics of ride-hailing change dramatically. Margins could jump, utilization rates could soar, and the addressable market could rival that of the world's largest mobility companies.

According to MarketsandMarkets, the global robotaxi market is expected to grow from approximately 617 units in 2021 to roughly 1.45 million vehicles by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 130%. In terms of revenue, Fortune Business Insights projects that the market will grow from approximately $1.7 billion in 2022 to around $108 billion by 2029, representing an 80.8% CAGR over the forecast period.

While these figures reflect long-term ambition more than near-term earnings, they underscore the potential scale Tesla is chasing. Moreover, the tech company has taken steps to reach its long-term ambition. In June of 2025, Tesla quietly launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. Rides cost $4.20, the fleet is composed of modified Model Ys, and -- for now -- human safety monitors sit behind the wheel.

Still, the road ahead presents challenges. Tesla still requires regulatory approval, a flawless safety record, and customer trust before it can operate robotaxis at scale. Besides, competitors like Waymo and Cruise have already deployed limited fleets. For instance, Waymo has partnered withto offer autonomous rides in a few cities.

While Tesla is late to the party, it does have an advantage over its peers: vertical integration from AI training to manufacturing, giving it complete control of its services. Additionally, millions of Tesla cars are already running on FSD, providing the necessary data to help train its autonomous driving software.

Optimus: A bet on general-purpose robotics

While robotaxis are an extension of Tesla's autonomy work, Optimus is an entirely different bet: a humanoid robot capable of performing general-purpose tasks. First revealed in 2021, the prototype has progressed from a static concept to a walking, functioning machine that can manipulate objects. Tesla's stated goal is for Optimus to handle repetitive, dangerous, or mundane tasks -- starting in Tesla's factories before being rolled out to other industries.

If successful, Optimus could open a market even larger than the mobility sector. Industrial automation, elder care, hospitality, and household assistance are just a few potential applications. Founder and CEO Elon Musk has even suggested the humanoid robot could eventually outnumber Tesla's cars, becoming the company's most valuable product line. He also predicted that Optimus could lift Tesla's market cap to $25 trillion.

While it's still early days, the economics for this business could be compelling. Tesla could sell Optimus units directly or lease them on a subscription model, generating recurring revenue streams. And because much of the Core technology -- batteries, actuators, sensors, artificial intelligence (AI) -- overlaps with Tesla's existing products, the company can leverage its supply chain and engineering talent without starting from scratch.

In other words, there are good reasons for investors to be optimistic about this moonshot project.

What it means for investors

Tesla's robotaxi and Optimus bets share a common thread: both hinge on AI-driven autonomy and Tesla's ability to execute at scale. Neither will contribute meaningful revenue in the next year or two, but each could be transformative over the next decade if the technology matures as planned.

Investors should weigh the high risk against the equally high potential reward. Tesla's CORE EV business already gives it a strong foundation, but if even one of these moonshots pays off, the company's long-term growth curve could steepen dramatically.

For now, both are speculative -- but they're also the kind of asymmetric bets that have defined Tesla's history. If successful, these new businesses could propel Tesla to become the world's most valuable company.

Investors should closely monitor Tesla as it executes its ambitions.