Shopify Stock Skyrockets: Here’s the Fuel Behind the Fire

Shopify shares just went parabolic—again. The e-commerce platform’s stock ripped higher today, leaving analysts scrambling to justify the move. Here’s what’s pumping the rally.

The catalyst? Blowout earnings—or maybe just FOMO.

No official numbers yet, but whispers of merchant growth and AI-powered tools lit the fuse. Shopify’s been quietly swallowing market share while Amazon stumbles over its own logistics. Now, investors are piling in like it’s 2021.

Short sellers got steamrolled.

Bearish bets cratered as the stock surged. Turns out, betting against the company powering half your Instagram ads wasn’t a genius play. Even the CFO probably high-fived their algo.

The big question: Sustainable—or another meme-stock mirage?

Shopify’s fundamentals improved, sure. But let’s be real—Wall Street’s ‘growth at any cost’ mantra smells like desperation after missing crypto’s last bull run. At least this time they’re gambling on something with actual revenue.

Image source: Getty Images.

Shopify Q2 earnings

Shopify's a bit eccentric in how it reports earnings, deemphasizing net income (and earnings per share) and focusing more on GMV, revenue, and free cash flow. In today's report, the company boasted of growing revenue 31% year over year, and earning 16% free cash FLOW margins on its revenue.

GMV grew 31% year over year, resulting in similar revenue growth. Free cash Flow generated from these sales, however, grew slower at 27%, and operating profits were up only 21% year over year -- numbers that may discourage growth stock investors a bit once they notice them.

Is Shopify stock a buy?

Guidance may also come as something of a shock, with management forecasting sales growth to slow into the "mid-to-high twenties percentage rate" in Q3, and gross profit rising even less, in the "low-twenties." On the plus side, management forecasts free cash flow margin to be somewhere in the "mid-to-high teens."

If that's how things play out, it implies Shopify should at least maintain the 16% FCF margin it did in Q2, in the coming quarter -- and might even exceed it. That WOULD presumably provide a bigger boost to both FCF and profits.

Speaking of which, Shopify's $200 billion market cap today prices the stock at 111 times free cash flow, and more than 87 times net profit. That's quite a high price for a stock growing at 31% -- much less the "mid-to-high teens."

Therefore, despite the earnings beat, Shopify's still a sell for me.