Ford Under $13: Bargain Hunt or Value Trap?

Wall Street's sleeping on an automotive icon trading at pocket-change prices. Ford's stock dipped below $13—a level that's got contrarian investors buzzing.

The Bull Case: Legacy Powerhouse, Digital Future

Ford isn't just riding the EV wave—it's building its own pipeline. The F-150 Lightning electrified America's best-selling truck while legacy automakers scrambled. Their commercial division prints cash with fleet sales that crypto startups can only dream of.

The Bear Trap: Industrial Age Baggage

Union contracts and supply chain headaches drag like anchor chains. Every interest rate hike makes auto loans more expensive—something DeFi never worries about. Traditional valuation metrics look cheap until you realize they're measuring a horse carriage in the age of hyperloop.

Bottom Line: Ford at $13 feels like finding a classic Mustang in a barn—could be a restoration project or a rust bucket. Meanwhile, crypto protocols are executing stock buybacks programmatically. Just saying.

Image source: Ford.

Ford's grand plan

Ford's management recently laid out a new electric vehicle plan, with the goal of selling a new, small EV pickup truck by 2027 -- with a price tag of about $30,000. The new vehicle, which hasn't been named yet, would be the first of a new lineup of vehicles built on a new EV platform.

Ford CEO Jim Farley indicated just how focused the company is on this EV plan, saying: "We have all lived through far too many 'good college tries' by Detroit automakers to make affordable vehicles that ends up with idled plants, layoffs and uncertainty. So, this had to be a strong, sustainable and profitable business."

It's commendable to see Ford taking steps toward expanding its EV lineup, and offering an electric vehicle at that price would be a welcome MOVE by consumers. The average transaction price for a new EV right now is about $57,000, which is too pricey for many Americans.

It's also a smart strategy to build a new platform that Ford can use to build future models. The company says the new platform will bring manufacturing cost efficiencies, with the new EV platform reducing parts by 20% versus a typical vehicle and 15% faster assembly times.

It's too early to bet on Ford's vision

If you're considering buying Ford's stock based on the company's ambitious EV goals, there are a few reasons why you'd likely be making a premature bet. For one, Ford has laid out ambitious electric vehicle plans before, only to come up short. The company said in 2023 that its EV segment would be profitable on an earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) basis by the end of 2026.

And yet the company has posted significant losses for the division, including an EBIT loss of $1.3 billion in Q2, representing a widening loss compared to the year-ago quarter. The expanding losses came from battery production facility costs, tariffs, and investments in its next-generation models.

When the company set its goal of EBIT profitability for its EV segment several years ago, it couldn't have anticipated President Donald Trump's tariffs, of course. But my concern is that Ford is painting a rosy EV future that's going to be very difficult to make into reality.

Investors only need to look to other traditional automakers to see the current shift in the EV industry.scaled back its 2026 EV manufacturing goal recently by about one-third, andbacked away from its previously touted ambition of going all electric by 2030. Rising costs and uncertain consumer demand is causing some automakers to rethink ambitious EV plans, while Ford is doubling down.

Take a wait-and-see approach

I'm curious to see Ford implement its new EV strategy, and I'm rooting for the company. But I don't think buying Ford stock right now, as it pours money into this bet, is the right move.

Instead, I think investors should wait to see if Ford delivers on launching a $30,000 EV truck by 2027, how well it sells, and if the company begins to narrow its EV losses before considering buying the stock. If electric vehicles are the company's future, then waiting to buy the stock until the company delivers on its goals seems like a prudent approach.