Is Rivian Stock Your Ticket to Becoming a Millionaire?

Electric vehicle upstart Rivian faces the ultimate road test—transforming early investors into millionaires.

The Battery-Powered Dream

Rivian's rugged electric trucks electrified the market with their debut, promising adventure without emissions. The stock surged on Tesla-esque hype, but now faces the grueling production ramp every automaker fears.

Wall Street's Wild Ride

Analysts can't decide if Rivian represents the next Tesla or another cautionary tale. The company burns cash faster than a supercar guzzles gas—because building vehicles from scratch requires billions before the first delivery.

Millionaire Math or Mirage?

Turning today's investment into seven figures demands near-perfect execution. Rivian must scale production, fend off legacy automakers, and somehow turn a profit—all while EV startups collapse around them.

Just remember: Wall Street sells the shovels during every gold rush. Whether you strike it rich or just dig a deeper hole depends entirely on Rivian's ability to deliver more than promises.

Rivian has done big things

To give credit where credit is due, Rivian has achieved a huge amount of success in a very short period of time. It basically went from an idea -- making electric vehicles (EVs) -- to an operating business with a well-respected EV truck and an EV delivery van used widely by retail powerhouse(AMZN -0.84%). That isn't something that could have been achieved if Rivian didn't have its act together.

Image source: Rivian.

Notably, in late 2024, Rivian hit a key milestone, achieving a modest gross profit for the first time. While a gross profit only means that it was able to generate more revenue from selling its vehicles than it cost to produce them, that is a key step toward positive earnings.

The modest gross profit came after Rivian hit another important goal, scaled production. It delivered more than 10,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2025, which is a substantial number. It also has a new truck called the R2 coming out next year, which will be geared to the mass market. That should help to further increase volume, which will allow Rivian to spread its costs over even more vehicles.

In many ways, Rivian is following in Tesla's footsteps. Given the massive stock price advance Tesla has made over its history, some investors might see Rivian as a second chance to catch a little of the Tesla opportunity they might have missed. Don't get overly excited.

Rivian has a long way to go

With a well-respected product and key partners like tech giant Amazon and automaker(which has agreed to provide fresh capital to Rivian based on Rivian's ability to meet certain business goals), Rivian seems like it will establish itself as a sustainably profitable business. However, this goal is still likely to be at least a few years away, given the need to invest in the business and research and development right now. Rivian could help you reach a seven-figure net worth, but it isn't likely to do so quickly.

Moreover, the competition set today is much larger than it was when Tesla entered the auto market. At the time, Tesla was basically the only company making EVs. Today, there are a number of sizable EV makers. Virtually all of the traditional automakers are in the space, too. Even if Rivian is successful, it could still just produce a modest profit at the bottom of its income statement, thanks to the changed competitive landscape.

That said, even that outcome WOULD require strong execution. Although Rivian has lived up to its goals, for the most part, so far, there's no guarantee that it will continue to do so in the future. If the company starts missing its targets, investors are likely to turn deeply negative on the stock.

How much more negative could they get after a 90% price decline? Well, the stock happens to be up nearly 23% over the past year, which is notably better than the nearly 17% gain of theindex (^GSPC -0.50%). Even after a 90%+ decline, there's still ample room for a DEEP drawdown, as investors appear to have priced in a lot of good news in recent days.

Risk takers may find it attractive

It probably wouldn't be a great idea to bet your house on Rivian. But it has achieved a great deal in a short period of time, with material opportunity for more success in the future. The problem is that it could also fall short of its goals and flame out, like many upstart EV makers have already done. If you see the execution strength and want to add Rivian to a diversified portfolio, it could help you reach millionaire status. Just go in recognizing the risk, which is material, and the time period you need to consider, which is long.

That's why more conservative investors will probably want to sit on the sidelines for now. It makes a great deal of sense to wait at least until the R2 has been brought to market, so investors can assess how well the new car does with consumers.