Trump’s 2025 China Visit? Prediction Markets Are Placing Big Bets

Political betting heats up as traders speculate on diplomatic moves

Market analysts track unusual activity in political futures

Odds shift with every tweet and diplomatic whisper

Traditional investors shake heads—because why analyze policy when you can gamble on it?

What big media says

• Reuters reports that Washington and Beijing have agreed on a TikTok framework that includes a Trump-Xi call, signaling a thaw and opening for higher-level meetings.

• AP and The Guardian confirm that the White House extended TikTok’s divestiture deadline, suggesting ongoing senior dialogue.

• WSJ and SCMP report that Beijing has formally invited Trump and that negotiations for a state visit are well underway, with trade deliverables under discussion.

This backdrop makes a 2025 trip a live possibility—exactly the kind of binary event prediction markets are built to price.

How to read the odds

• Myriad: Direct “visit” bet—literal boots on the ground in China.

• Kalshi: Focused on Trump meeting various world leaders, with Xi holding a strong lead among contenders.

• Polymarket: Gives a comparative sense of China versus other possible destinations, acting as a sentiment barometer.

Traders watch all three: A leaked advance team trip or confirmed Trump-Xi call can quickly MOVE prices across platforms.

Bottom line

With diplomatic prep accelerating, a Trump trip to China is plausible—and tradable. If you want the purest market on whether he goes, Myriad’s market is the cleanest play. For regulatory-compliant exposure, there’s Kalshi, and for a broader sentiment snapshot, Polymarket’s travel board is worth watching.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

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