Bitcoin’s Red-Hot Rally: Can the Momentum Last? Top Prediction Markets to Watch This Week
Crypto's never boring—especially when Bitcoin's on a tear. As bulls pile into the king coin, prediction markets are flashing wild bets on where it heads next. Here's what's buzzing.
FOMO or fundamentals? Either way, traders are doubling down. From 'when BTC hits $100K' to 'which altcoin pumps next,' the speculation machine is running at full throttle. Just don't ask the SEC for a blessing.
Prediction platforms show 72% odds of another 15% surge by month-end. Meanwhile, 'BlackRock ETF inflows' leads governance markets—because nothing screams decentralization like Wall Street's stamp of approval.
Watch the derivatives chatter too. Open interest screams leverage, and liquidations loom. Remember kids: the market takes the stairs up and the elevator down.
Closing thought: If history rhymes, this rally ends with someone yelling 'I told you so'... and a lot of bagholders muttering about 'macro conditions.'
Will a PENGU ETF be approved by October?
Market Open: July 4
Market Close: September 30
Volume: $39.4K
Altcoin ETF applications, or those featuring crypto assets other than Bitcoin and Ethereum, are gaining momentum—and are “near locks” for approval this year, according to some analysts. But will a PENGU ETF be among them? And will it happen by October?
Myriad predictors are leaning against it, with nearly 67% odds landing on “no” as of Thursday. Those odds have shifted down about 10% in the last day though as the SEC acknowledged the Canary PENGU ETF filing. The proposed fund would provide exposure to both the Solana token and Pudgy Penguins Ethereum NFTs.
Filed earlier this year, the ETF if approved WOULD be the first to accommodate assets from an NFT brand.
While predictors were only nudged around 10% as the SEC asked for public comments on the offering, the crypto market spoke louder, sending PENGU up more than 30% in the last day. However, it still remains around 72% off its all-time high from around its December launch.
What’s Next? The SEC is soliciting public comments on the Canary ETF.
Bitcoin above $100K throughout July?
Market Open: July 4
Market Close: July 31
Volume: $14.6K
Bitcoin claimed a new all-time high on Wednesday, clipping above $112,000 in the process—and then jumped above $113,000 on Thursday, repeating the feat.
With a double-digit percentage safety net now protecting its descent below $100,000, predictors on Myriad are being asked whether or not the top crypto asset can maintain a price above $100,000 throughout the entirety of July.
The current price cushion has them thinking so, with prediction market odds at 81% in favor of “yes,” that the price will indeed hold above $100,000.
That marks an 11% swing in the last 24 hours and nearly 18% jump in the last seven days as the BTC price has steadily risen.
Institutions keep stacking it and the ETFs are breaking ground on major milestones. Will that be enough to keep BTC in the six-figure range ‘til August 1?
What’s Next: This market will track the price of bitcoin throughout the month of July, closing on July 31.
Djokovic v. Sinner: Who will be at the Wimbledon final?
Market Open: July 10
Market Close: July 11
Volume: $1.27K
The most prestigious tennis event is coming to a close as the Wimbledon Gentlemen’s Singles draw heads into the semi-finals on Friday. The day’s matches are highlighted by the world’s best players and a marquee matchup between Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner.
On Myriad, predictors are asked to choose who will come out on top: the seven-time Wimbledon champ Djokovic, or world #1 ranked player Sinner.
As of Thursday afternoon, predictors give the much younger Sinner the edge at 66% odds to advance to the final. But there are interesting storylines surrounding the matchup, including potential injury wrinkles on both sides.
For example, Sinner has been seen occasionally shaking out his right arm following an elbow MRI, which has given some of his fans concern. He briefly modified his practice schedule earlier this week, but seemed no worse for wear in a straight-sets victory last round.
Djokovic too, the much older of the pair, had a minor injury scare at the end of his last match after he slipped attempting to convert a match point, and he delayed and later cancelled a practice scheduled on Thursday.
Sinner got the better of the elder statesmen in their last matchup at Roland Garros, but the surface boost belongs to Djokovic this time around. Traditional sportsbooks give him about a 38% chance of winning, making him around 4% more likely than Myriad predictors suggest.
What’s Next? Sinner and Djokovic will play on Friday afternoon in London.
